Few messages from us or anyone else in publishing are as unwelcome as “There are too many books.” To authors, making an argument for fewer books can sound like an argument for stronger gatekeeping at a time when the whole function and value of gatekeeping is being questioned. Not to mention the fact that the gates are ceasing to matter as self-publishing continues to grow.
Interestingly, there is a logical and economic basis for traditional publishers’ tendency to produce “too many books,” according to longtime industry consultant Mike Shatzkin. Shatzkin writes that, two decades ago, “the big houses used to be able to count on a sale of 1,500 or 2,000 copies for just about any title they published.” This meant that “books near the bottom of the list didn’t actually ‘lose’ money,” he writes. “They just didn’t make much as long as the publisher avoided being too generous with the advance or overly optimistic about what they printed.”
Today, as Shatzkin sees it, this has changed. “Now it is not uncommon for books to sell in the very low triple digits, even on a big publisher’s list.… So there definitely are books today—lots of books—coming from major houses that are not recovering even their direct costs.” [Emphasis ours.]
Why is this happening? It has a lot to do with retail consolidating.
Shatzkin says that, in the 1970s, there was a stronger independent bookstore market, and many more opportunities for retail placement. Fast forward to today, and the landscape has shifted dramatically. Shatzkin breaks down the market in this way:
- Amazon: 50 percent
- Wholesalers, libraries, and specialty accounts: 25 percent
- Barnes & Noble: “in the teens”
- Independent bookstores: 6 to 8 percent
Far fewer buyers decide which books get sold where. Plus, Shatzkin writes, the publishing houses now do a lot more to boost the big books and a lot less to support the smaller titles. Read his full post.
Bottom line: The key trend for authors and agents, in Shatzkin’s words, is this: “it is no longer irrational to cut the list and focus.” Look for shorter lists—fewer new titles, chosen more carefully and marketed more aggressively. Already, literary agency sources tell us that it’s harder to get a book sold. This trend will deepen as publishers finally face that “wall of content” and realize that throwing more books at it won’t work to boost the bottom line with retail options narrowing.
Jane Friedman has spent her entire career working in the publishing industry, with a focus on business reporting and author education. Established in 2015, her newsletter The Bottom Line provides nuanced market intelligence to thousands of authors and industry professionals; in 2023, she was named Publishing Commentator of the Year by Digital Book World.
Jane’s expertise regularly features in major media outlets such as The New York Times, The Atlantic, NPR, The Today Show, Wired, The Guardian, Fox News, and BBC. Her book, The Business of Being a Writer, Second Edition (The University of Chicago Press), is used as a classroom text by many writing and publishing degree programs. She reaches thousands through speaking engagements and workshops at diverse venues worldwide, including NYU’s Advanced Publishing Institute, Frankfurt Book Fair, and numerous MFA programs.
