As probably every Hot Sheet reader knows, the traditional book publishing industry has enjoyed increased sales and profits during the pandemic due to increased demand for books across every category and especially in children’s categories. In fact, 2020 was a historic year for children’s nonfiction print book sales due to the need for educational materials as well as entertainment at home. Overall, juvenile nonfiction ended 2020 with unit sales up by 23 percent versus the prior year.
So how about this year?
In an October presentation to the American Book Producers Association, NPD BookScan analyst Brenna Connor offered an update on the children’s market. Her data was pulled not just from the standard NPD print book sales data (which tracks book sales through thousands of retail outlets) but also from PubTrack Digital (publisher-reported ebook sales from the top 450 publishers), BookScan license reporting (more on this later), and PubTrack Digital Audio (a new source that tracks the top audio publishers in the US).
While print sales are lower this year than they were last year, they are still up over 2019. Here’s where the numbers sit as of Oct. 2, 2021, versus last year.
- Juvenile fiction: +13.7%
- Juvenile nonfiction: -4.2%
- YA fiction: +5.5%
- YA nonfiction +0.2%
Juvenile nonfiction is the only category to decline, mainly because it’s being compared to the historic sales of 2020. If compared to 2019, this year’s print sales for the category are up around 20 percent.
This year, it’s really about kids’ fiction—especially series—in terms of growth. Graphic novels and manga in particular have been driving this growth, partly a result of some series getting adapted for the screen and becoming popular through streaming services. Other popular categories include humorous stories (e.g., Jeff Kinney’s Wimpy Kid series), social themes (driven by poet Amanda Gorman), animals (e.g., I Love You to the Moon and Back and The Little Blue Truck series), and holidays. Series are claiming a greater share of book sales over time, with a 5 percent annual compound growth rate since 2012. In 2021, a series accounted for two out of every three kids’ books sold.
Middle-grade books (ages nine through 12) are seeing the highest absolute gains in sales. This year, middle-grade books sales are up by 5 million units. Examples of popular authors in this category include Dav Pilkey (Dog Man series) and, again, Jeff Kinney (Wimpy Kid).
Digital audio accounts for 3 percent of the kids’ book market in 2020. This is based on a very small sample set—a handful of the top publishers. Rather than focus on the percentage of the market, it might be better to remember that kids’ audiobooks are growing faster than adult audio at this point—by 25 percent. So expect audio market share to keep climbing in the years ahead.
YA fiction is up by 33 percent this year; growth is tied to BookTok. Of the 10 YA bestsellers in 2021, two are new titles, one is an older frontlist title, one is a required school read, and the rest (six) are BookTok favorites. Connor says this is the first time NPD has seen a meaningful sales effect through organic social media. While 2020 sales were driven by blockbusters (like the Twilight series or Hunger Games), 2021 is all about older titles surfacing again through BookTok word of mouth. It’s not just one sales spike, but long-term sales growth that’s sustained over the year. Adam Silvera’s They Both Die at the End, released in 2018, has seen 80 percent of its sales volume happen this year.
Nearly one-third of all kids’ books sold today feature a licensed character. Kids’ licenses fall into two categories: literary licenses and pure licenses. A literary license describes something that started as a book, while a pure license originates outside of the book world, e.g., Disney’s Frozen. Of the top 20 kids’ licenses in 2020 in the US, seven were pure licenses and the rest were literary licenses. The top literary license is Dr. Seuss; the top pure license is Paw Patrol.
What to watch for: Connor pointed out several growth areas that NPD expects to do well in the year ahead. They include (1) self-esteem and self-reliance, or books that help children develop skills that allow them to overcome challenges on their own; (2) climate change and conservation, or books that focus on the environment; and (3) friendship and inclusion, or books with a focus on kindness and the value of being a good friend to others.
Bottom line: Demand for all types of books is expected to stay strong for the rest of 2021 and much of 2022. While sales may look less favorable compared to 2020, the forecast for kids’ nonfiction remains strong even as people return to work and to school, given concerns that kids have lost ground educationally.
Jane Friedman has spent her entire career working in the publishing industry, with a focus on business reporting and author education. Established in 2015, her newsletter The Bottom Line provides nuanced market intelligence to thousands of authors and industry professionals; in 2023, she was named Publishing Commentator of the Year by Digital Book World.
Jane’s expertise regularly features in major media outlets such as The New York Times, The Atlantic, NPR, The Today Show, Wired, The Guardian, Fox News, and BBC. Her book, The Business of Being a Writer, Second Edition (The University of Chicago Press), is used as a classroom text by many writing and publishing degree programs. She reaches thousands through speaking engagements and workshops at diverse venues worldwide, including NYU’s Advanced Publishing Institute, Frankfurt Book Fair, and numerous MFA programs.
