Coronavirus Update: June 10, 2020

Print book sales are down only half a percent versus 2019, but booksellers and publishers alike worry the worst is still ahead

Since our last issue, the officials at Frankfurt Book Fair in Germany have announced they will be moving ahead with the world’s largest book-industry event in mid-October (with approval from the government), albeit in modified form, with expanded virtual programming. With each passing day, more and more publishers around the globe have issued statements about not exhibiting and/or attending in person. That includes not just the Big Five US publishers, but also major German publishers, such as Random House Germany, Holtzbrinck, Luebbe, and others—who are reportedly collaborating with Frankfurt on new types of events. Erin Somers noted in Publishers Lunch that Canada, this year’s guest of honor, does not want to attend and would like to postpone until 2021. Publishing Perspectives offers two articles with greater detail on how Frankfurt plans to modify the event and keep engagement high without publishers on site.

Book sales
NPD BookScan reports that print book unit sales are down just 0.5 percent compared to the same time period in 2019, through May 23. The last couple weeks have seen an uptick in sales versus 2019 for two reasons: the newest Hunger Games title just released, plus there’s increased interest in anti-racism books.

Over at Publishing Perspectives, in an interview with NPD’s Kristen McLean, you can find an insightful graph that tracks print sales of adult fiction, adult nonfiction, juvenile fiction, and juvenile nonfiction from the beginning of the year to mid-May. McLean identifies the week ending March 28 as the nadir of unit sales. The fact we’re well beyond that nadir might offer some comfort, but she adds, “It’s going to be so hard to get a new book or a new author into the marketplace in the latter half of the year because of the amount of content that’s been pushed back and the fact that you can’t do traditional author-appearance work.”

Indeed, the anxiety over this problem has produced an article in The New York Times about authors “fighting for attention” during an election cycle and the pandemic—and now civil unrest. And that’s not all. When Publishers Weekly talked with sales reps for independent publishers, they raised more challenges: heavy returns during third quarter, combined with the inability to meet with buyers in stores or publishers at sales conferences.

• Week ending May 23. Unit sales and dollar earnings increase by 5 percent over the previous week and 11 percent over the same week in 2019. Sales gains come from YA fiction, due to the release of the Hunger Games prequel, The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes. Scholastic says they sold more than half a million units across all formats.
• Week ending May 30. Unit sales drop by 5.5 percent compared to the May 23 week—because it’s pretty hard to beat a week that welcomed a new Hunger Games title. Even so, when compared to 2019, this week’s sales are up in terms of units by more than 8 percent. Anti-racism books begin to appear on bestseller charts.
• Travel book sales are starting to return. Year to date, travel book sales have declined by 40 percent according to NPD BookScan, but sales have started to rebound in May. Books covering Western US states have seen the most interest. Outdoor books—on hiking and running—were up as well.
• Italy book sales take a huge hit. According to the Italian Publishers Association, bookstores saw a sales drop of 70 to 85 percent during lockdown. They expect the industry will be down 20 to 30 percent versus last year.

Publishers and bookstores
On June 2 and 3, UK’s Independent Publishers Group (IPG) held a virtual conference with speakers from across the industry, some of them directly addressing the pandemic’s effects. Nigel Newton of UK’s Bloomsbury said that while some digital sales channels have overperformed, audio consumption saw an unpredicted and sizable decline—which he blamed on a lack of commuting. Fortunately, Bloomsbury’s sales have recovered after an initial decline of two-thirds. However, managing directors of two UK independent publishers said they’re more anxious now than they were before, given the crowded launch schedule in the fall.

Meanwhile, Ingram says (as we’ve reported before) that there’s a huge upswing in print-on-demand orders (subscription required), with some publishers using it as backup even for frontlist titles, given the difficulties in accessing warehouse stock. Senior vice-president David Taylor warned during an IPG session that bookstores could have difficulty “clawing back trade” from online retailers.

At the IPG conference, James Daunt was interviewed about Waterstones (subscription required), and he revealed that the UK chain’s online sales “exploded” during the lockdown, but consumers were buying a different kind of book. He said the new and the undiscovered isn’t performing online as well as it does in bookstores: “That clearly is associated with bookseller recommendation, the physical presentation of books in front of customers, and the fact that as you browse you buy the book that you hadn’t thought of, you didn’t know about.” He does not think the bookstore business will change much in the future. Most Waterstones stores will re-open on June 15.

In less optimistic news in the UK, the Blackwell’s chain is closing five of its university branches (subscription required). The owner wouldn’t say if the closures were planned prior to the pandemic or not.

In the US, the Book Industry Charitable Foundation has never been busier in its efforts to support independent bookshops. Two or three requests for assistance used to arrive every week; that number is now up to 70 or 80 per day. The average assistance check is $1,000.

Amazon
The company continues to face criticism and complications related to warehouse safety conditions. In recent days, workers have sued Amazon for fostering the spread of the virus through unsafe work conditions, inadequate protection supplies, and insufficient contact tracing.

Also, Amazon has reversed a ban on a booklet critical of the US coronavirus response. The self-published work (clocking in at 6,400 words) ranked as high as number-two on the Amazon bestseller list but has since fallen. Learn more at the Houston Chronicle.

Other developments

• Book Expo’s online version performed so well they plan to make some virtual events permanent. The first day of events, focused on library concerns, performed best. Read Jim Milliot at Publishers Weekly.
• What’s the pandemic’s effect on fiction magazines? The editor of Clarkesworld discusses what he’s heard and experienced so far. Read at the magazine’s site.
• How publishers decide to move a publication date: Rachel Kramer Bussel asks editors what factors contribute to changing a book’s release date; they include the importance of media coverage and in-person events. Read at Forbes.
• Manga publishers are holding steady. In the US, manga has a solid upward trajectory, and that is expected to continue despite store closures. Read Deb Aoki in Publishers Weekly.
• Can there be book deals without meals? Yes, of course. Sara Nelson, a HarperCollins editor, discusses book acquisitions without the lunch meetings. Read at Publishers Weekly.
• Film and TV production has ground to a halt, so film and TV licensing agreements may have to be adjusted (or they may fall apart). Kristine Kathryn Rusch discusses an industry in flux and how it affects indie authors’ licensing agreements. Read at her site.