We work with Alex Newton of K-lytics to bring you a high-level look at publishing trends based on what’s currently being read and sold at Amazon. These trends relate strictly to the Kindle ebook market, where Newton has been tracking sales rank data since 2014.
Sports Romance: Don’t be deceived by the look of the cover
Sports romance is a subgenre of romance and, as the name suggests, combines romance and sports. The advent of sports romance as a subgenre really began in 2010, almost in parallel with the Amazon KDP market (see chart). Usually a main character has something to do with a professional sports business, like American football, mixed martial arts, hockey, etc. Books range from clean romance to explicit adult content, but the majority of books lean toward the steamier side of things. While flat vector graphics for cover art are popular in this category, don’t be fooled—these can be the steamy ones.
Search interest for sports, especially in the US, is seasonal, and it has been rising especially for American football and basketball. Football (NFL) peaks in January, while hockey (NHL) peaks in May, as does basketball (NBA). Baseball (MLB) peaks in October. In terms of Google search volume, the NFL and football outpaces all other sports, so you’d think this would be the largest market for romance. But if you’re at all aware of TikTok/BookTok trends, then you know that, instead, the most popular sports romance is hockey. Partly this relates to a controversy involving the Seattle Kraken, when one of their players became a TikTok sensation and a character in books. (We reported earlier this year on the rise of real-person fiction.)
According to Kindle data collected by Newton, hockey romance is still on the rise, and authors and publishers have been reacting to the demand. The category has become very sticky and presents an attractive opportunity when you look at sales volume versus competition. This market is dominated by titles available in Kindle Unlimited, and close to 80 percent of top-performing titles are tied to a series. Some of the top-performing authors this year include Elle Kennedy, Liz Tomforde, and Meghan Quinn. To learn more, you can buy the full Sports Romance report.
What historical fiction periods are growing versus declining?
Newton’s work in the historical fiction category typically focuses on what time periods or places are performing particularly well. For his May 2024 report, this is what he found in the Kindle market.
- Women’s fiction, World War II, and the 20th century lead subcategory sales in historical fiction.
- On the decline: historical fiction fantasy; this could relate to declining sales of the Outlander series.
- The Renaissance subcategory shows the best 12-month sales rank improvement, but it’s not a high-selling category generally. Philippa Gregory is a big author in this realm, and any trends here could be related to her sales alone.
- Historical fiction related to the Middle East exhibits positive development but ranks low in absolute terms; people are likely more interested in what’s happening in this region due to current events, and that extends beyond just reading nonfiction.
- Historical fiction based in ancient times is also on an upward trajectory, but without a single author or theme dominating.
- Historical fiction related to Asia is growing, helped by the Shogun series as well as Colin Falconer’s work.
Newton also put together a separate report focused on historical fiction mysteries that offers some unpleasant news: This particular subcategory has seen a significant sales decline in the last year and has been on a general downward trend since 2018. It is a very competitive area. To learn more about all trends in historical fiction, you can buy the full Historical Fiction report.
Jane Friedman has spent her entire career working in the publishing industry, with a focus on business reporting and author education. Established in 2015, her newsletter The Bottom Line provides nuanced market intelligence to thousands of authors and industry professionals; in 2023, she was named Publishing Commentator of the Year by Digital Book World.
Jane’s expertise regularly features in major media outlets such as The New York Times, The Atlantic, NPR, The Today Show, Wired, The Guardian, Fox News, and BBC. Her book, The Business of Being a Writer, Second Edition (The University of Chicago Press), is used as a classroom text by many writing and publishing degree programs. She reaches thousands through speaking engagements and workshops at diverse venues worldwide, including NYU’s Advanced Publishing Institute, Frankfurt Book Fair, and numerous MFA programs.
