What to Watch for in 2022

In the last issue, I recapped the most notable stories of 2021. In 2022, I’ll be closely watching these ongoing developments.

The battle over digital lending
The Internet Archive and the Association of American Publishers will continue their high-profile battle in court over the IA’s digital lending library. In a nutshell, it is a copyright and fair use fight, and the outcome could dramatically affect digital library lending. Most recently, a judge agreed to extend the discovery deadline to Jan. 31, 2022, with the possibility of another extension. For more background on the Internet Archive and its lending practices, see this August 2020 item, which I wrote shortly after the lawsuit was filed.

There is also ongoing litigation between the Association of American Publishers and the state of Maryland, which recently passed an ebook licensing law. The law is meant to ensure public libraries have the right, with reasonable terms, to license and lend ebooks that are available to consumers. But the AAP says the law violates the Constitution and federal copyright law. Supporters of the law (mainly librarians) say it does no such thing and merely mandates that if a publisher licenses an ebook (or any digital literary work) to the public in Maryland, it must also make a license available to public libraries as well, and that publishers can still dictate licensing terms. That is not how the AAP interprets it.

Those who are sympathetic to libraries’ mission to promote literacy and education and to preserve and lend materials argue that today’s digital licenses effectively don’t allow libraries to buy books. Digital books may only be licensed, and licensed on publishers’ terms; they can only be preserved with permission, and that permission can be revoked at any time. Brewster Kahle, IA’s founder, said, “This is not a rule of law, this is the rule by license.”

Meanwhile, publishers’ and authors’ advocacy groups seek stronger copyright laws and protections because of the increased pressures brought by the digital age (e.g., subscriptions that pay publishers/authors less than outright purchases, frictionless access to digital materials, and piracy, just to name a few). But there is considerable evidence that, so far, library costs are higher for digital materials on a per-lend basis. If costs remain the same, libraries must change how they operate.

Overall, the legal case for the state ebook laws looks weak. At the end of December, New York state governor Kathy Hochul vetoed the state’s recently passed library ebook legislation that mirrored Maryland’s law. She said in an announcement, “While the goal of this bill is laudable, unfortunately, copyright protection provides the author of the work with the exclusive right to their works. … Because the provisions of this bill are preempted by federal copyright law, I cannot support this bill.”

The Internet Archive’s case rests partly on whether they can defend the concept of “controlled digital lending,” an invention that tests the limits of existing copyright law but would allow libraries to lend ebooks without permission or licenses if they own print copies in their collection. Kevin Guthrie, the founding president of JSTOR (a digital library), wrote on the matter, “Testing copyright law is the Internet Archive’s specific intention. It is reasonable for people to disagree about whether this is the right thing to do or if it fairly accounts for value and costs. And those things should be worked out, whether around a table or in the courts. … We all need to work together to define a new balance between the need for authors and content producers to be compensated for their work while also enabling wide access and sustainable preservation of content for future generations.”

The Copyright Claims Board will soon begin operations
Speaking of copyright: starting this spring, authors in the US will be able to bring copyright infringement claims without having to hire a lawyer. The Copyright Claims Board—a small-claims copyright tribunal created last year under the CASE Act—operates as part of the US Copyright Office. Three experts in copyright and litigation will act as Copyright Claims Officers, with attorneys to support their work. Once the tribunal is operational, any individual will be able to litigate their copyright disputes at a fraction of the cost of federal court. Will it work as intended? No one is entirely sure. I reviewed the concerns in January 2021.

Increased AI narration
The quality of AI narration just keeps getting better and better, and while it may not ever fully take the place of human narration, it is already good enough for some types of books and a viable option for self-publishing authors and small presses who need to keep costs low. Big Tech companies such as Google, Amazon, and Facebook all have a vested interest in perfecting the technology.

Last year, the biggest US book wholesaler and distributor, Ingram, established a marketing partnership with the UK’s DeepZen, which provides publishers with AI-generated text-to-speech audiobooks. DeepZen has licensed voices from actors and narrators to produce realistic speech patterns featuring seven different emotions. The production process combines AI technology with human editing and takes three weeks to produce an audiobook. DeepZen is just one player of many. Thad McIlroy recently covered several players in AI narration and text to speech.

When AI enters any professional space, there is guaranteed pushback and concern for human workers. Expect professional voice talent and audiobook advocacy groups to increasingly argue why human narration is superior and results in better sales than AI.

Books as intellectual property
In recent years, the appetite of streaming services for new and proven material has increased the number of publishing deals and partnerships—to books’ great benefit. The activity will continue to flourish. Michael Cader expressed it best in an interview with the BookSmarts podcast: “Books have always been foundational IP that have driven all kinds of other products. And those products, in turn, have driven back interest in the books and authors that originated the material.” He mentioned HarperCollins’s partnership with Elizabeth Gabler, a producer with a long and successful track record with book IP (past projects: The Devil Wears Prada, Life of Pi, Marley & Me, The Fault in Our Stars). For more on what Hollywood is looking for, see our page-to-screen issue from July 2021.

Cader also noted the crossover happening in the podcast and book publishing realm. For example, author Malcolm Gladwell, now a successful podcaster, is founder of Pushkin Industries, which produces audiobooks and podcasts. It continues to roll out audiobooks on private RSS feeds. Storytel, Europe’s subscription service for digital books, bought Audiobooks.com in late 2021, giving it a foothold in the US. And Spotify bought Findaway, an audiobook distributor and creator. The line between audiobooks and podcasts continues to blur.

The merger between Penguin Random House and Simon & Schuster
I think it will happen despite the DOJ’s attempt to block it. We’ll have our answer by fall 2022.

Was Hot Sheet’s 2021 outlook accurate?
Here’s what I discussed a year ago.

• ???? PRH’s acquisition of Simon & Schuster: This was definitely a topic of conversation at every industry event in 2021, and the DOJ’s suit has ensured it will remain so for another year.
• ???? Growing competition between Spotify, Audible, and others: This past year brought important acquisitions, as mentioned above.
• ???? Digital subscription services for audio: None of the biggest publishers have made important moves in this direction as far as sales and distribution, but the services continue to grow, and new ones have been launched. I don’t think 2022 will be the year Penguin Random House changes its mind on making titles available for digital audio subscription, but pressure is likely to increase.
• ???? Copyright law: The issues have only become more vexed, with states trying to pass laws that favor libraries, as described above.
• ???? Barnes & Noble’s new bookselling model: There wasn’t much news in 2021, other than that B&N managing to hold steady and improve its position slightly. The conversation around B&N has been so minimal, it feels as if the chain is becoming less relevant overall to the industry. Or is it the case of no news being good news?
• ???? Scrutiny of Amazon and other Big Tech firms: Increased pressure likely led Amazon Publishing to offer its digital books for library lending. But so far the tangible benefits of increased government scrutiny have not changed authors’ or publishers’ fortunes.