Trendspotting: The Challenges of the Midlist Author

The last two years have been a confusing mix of abundance and scarcity in publishing. As traditional publishers experience their best-ever sales (9 percent growth last year alone), they face unprecedented shortages in printing capacity and paper. Adult fiction now drives growth after years of category stagnation, yet this growth seems to happen regardless of the efforts of the publishers themselves. In fact, big publishers continue to say (without shame) they still don’t know what sells books.

With more sales shifting to backlist over time, one would hope midlist authors would be in a more comfortable and confident position. They have backlists waiting to be discovered by new readers, with each new book an opportunity to break out in a way they haven’t before. But a profit-happy industry has not put them in a position of strength. Publishers appear to have no more increased loyalty to their midlist authors than before, and in recent conversations with authors, publicists, and agents, I’m hearing a new level of frustration.

“It’s really heartbreaking,” says NYT bestselling author and marketing exec M.J. Rose, “how many authors are being dropped who 10 years ago would be considered house authors.” If a midlist author’s sales drop, the publisher is more likely to put their money toward another author. Moreover, even outside of the midlist, Rose says she’s seeing books with sizable advances—in the six figures—that have received almost no marketing from the publisher. “Sometimes it’s as little as $250 in Facebook ads and a Goodreads giveaway. That’s called serious marketing now.”

But if the industry is doing better than ever, where are record profits going? To the “sure bets” and debut authors, Rose says, which becomes a vicious cycle. Of course, it’s always been that way on some level. Publishers double down on the books that are already succeeding, and people’s jobs are dependent on them having successful titles. “It’s much easier to invest in existing successes and keep a success going than it is to take a chance,” Rose says. Publishers are also acquiring and publishing more underrepresented voices, and to do that well, they’re investing in marketing and promotion support. That too can mean less money to spread around the middle, Rose says.

Marketing and publicity divisions have been chronically understaffed and overworked at publishers, a problem noted by industry figures such as Paul Bogaards. He recently wrote, after 30+ years at PRH, “‘Do more with less’ has become the industry standard.” In response to a survey conducted by author Kyla Zhao, asking what authors can do to make publishing professionals’ jobs just a bit easier, one person wrote, “Please don’t post how upset you are on social about how the house isn’t supporting you, we are. We just have hundreds of other books we also have to support and can’t spam the feeds. It doesn’t mean we aren’t supporting you, we are just insanely limited and overworked and we are trying our best.”

Authors see and feel that. “The scarcity model continues to work for publishers,” says Ann Garvin, a midlist author and founder of the Tall Poppies, a marketing cooperative for women authors. Publishers publish more new books than they can support, then wait and see which titles survive or thrive, rather than investing in careers. If things are indeed worse now than before, Garvin says, it’s because the world is worse, which gives publishers more external things to blame when a title doesn’t perform well. But most of the time, the publisher simply blames the author when the model itself is the problem. “Authors are just these widgets now that can be manipulated and thrown away and tossed,” Garvin says. “It’s always going to be a numbers game for them. It’s not an author game.”

Freelance publicist Ann-Marie Nieves says her business has grown dramatically during the pandemic. She has run her own firm, Get Red PR, for 16 years, and says some of the bigger PR firms can’t even respond to the number of requests they’re getting each week. Now she’s at that point. “I started to think about why all these authors need me so much, because it can’t just be because I have a good reputation. It’s more than that.” She thinks authors are hoping a freelance publicist can help them break through. Nieves says she is clear and transparent with her clients: “I can’t make them or break them because I don’t know what that secret sauce is. I just know how to do my job.”

Lately, Nieves has seen publishers’ in-house publicists standing down and not getting as involved as before. Normally she’ll have a meeting with the marketing department and PR departments, divide and conquer on the press list, and have regular check-ins. “I don’t see that as often,” she says. That said, she’s seeing new things all the time now because of her increased level of business during the pandemic. Still, though, “You feel a little bit like you’re in high school again,” she says, in terms of who is getting the attention and investment from the publisher.

A dwindling number of media outlets that cover books have made it challenging to secure publicity. “That has really, really hurt the midlist maybe more than anything else. It started a long time ago, but it’s never been solved,” Rose says. “Midlist books are not generally the books that the industry wants to write up and wants to review. They’re not always the books that make news. That doesn’t mean they’re not the books readers want to read. There’s a big conundrum there.” Rose suggests the industry needs to come up with new ways of getting more readers exposed to books, but they don’t have the staff and time to think this through or do market testing and research.

In a worst-case scenario, some authors may choose to reinvent themselves or pivot. Instead of holding onto what they’ve built up and digging in their heels, Rose suggests it’s possible for midlist authors to publish under a new name, change their genre, and find another path forward. “A lot of authors don’t want to do that, and I don’t blame them, but that is a solution,” Rose says. Agent Carly Watters of P.S. Literary believes reinventions are happening more now than in the past. “The authors who want to keep having a writing career, they are the ones who will pivot and keep going.” She admits it’s hard, especially when publishers inevitably attempt to replicate recent successes, which leads to the bandwagon effect where all the covers start to look identical and editors look for the same types of stories. “Publishing wants to be able to lean into the sales trends that are working,” she says.

Whether they choose to pivot or not, Watters says midlist authors can no longer bank on selling their next book based on a partial manuscript. “They’re not able to sell on partial because they have to compete with these debuts,” she says. “The clout building isn’t there for the midlist author.” Even being a USA Today bestseller doesn’t carry weight when trying to sign your next contract. “It’s all about this book right now that you’re pitching.” Editors’ reading times have also slowed, and it’s taking longer to get the next deal in place. “That resume gap is getting larger and larger for these authors,” Watters says, which can lead to even more of a rebrand down the line because they’ve been out of the game for a longer period. However, Watters says midlist authors shouldn’t feel like they’re dead in the water—there are places to go outside of the Big Five, with new imprints always popping up. “Midlist doesn’t mean bad, it just means you’re in the middle of your career. It means making strategic, conscious decisions about where to go, and I’m confident there are places to go.”

Some authors may choose to accept an offer from Amazon Publishing—which has the biggest direct reach to readers of anyone in the business—but that can be problematic. Rose says that once authors are published by Amazon, the price of their ebooks drops. Traditional publishers typically price ebooks at $9.99 and above for a new release; Amazon Publishing’s ebooks cost far less, and $1.99 is not uncommon. Moreover, anything from Amazon Publishing becomes available in the Kindle Unlimited subscription program, where readers don’t have to pay per book at all. If such authors want to return to a Big Five house, the sales may look stellar at the low price point, but no New York publisher prices at that level. “It doesn’t matter how beloved the author is. You can’t convince somebody who’s gotten used to spending from zero to $2.99 to fork over $12.99 [for the ebook] unless it’s their favorite author,” Rose says. Watters agrees and says, “Moving someone from the Amazon ecosystem back to the New York ecosystem is starting over in a lot of ways.”

Garvin is one author who chose to work with Amazon Publishing on her latest novel, which did well. She assumes her next book with them will perform just as well—if they choose to invest in it. “I am absolutely ready for them to say they are done. I’m not expecting that, though, because the way they’ve treated me has been so far and away better than any other publishing professional I’ve worked with. I know that’s not everyone’s experience. Often authors get beautiful treatment the first time around. … An author can’t ever think ‘I’ve made it, I’m fine.’” Unfortunately, she says, that’s how voices can get silenced. “An author’s voice can’t get stronger and stronger in her art if she feels if at any moment she is going to have the rug pulled out from under her.” During the pandemic, the Tall Poppies cooperative lost more than a dozen authors because some stopped writing altogether. Others couldn’t get a book deal. And some were just exhausted by the prospect of marketing amidst the chaos.

More social media use by authors is not the answer to improving sales. Rose says she did a reader research study that showed a tiny percentage of readers discover a new book from the author’s own social media—unless the author is already a bestseller. While publishers keep hounding authors about using social media, Rose tells authors not to waste their time, especially since some readers will never buy until the ebook goes on sale.

What about BookTok? you might ask. The sales of 90 authors featured on BookTok are responsible for 73 percent of overall fiction growth so far in 2022; the books that take off are recommendations by influencers, readers, and fans—not the authors themselves. Garvin agrees with Rose about the efficacy of social media on book sales but says it’s important for authors to continue working on it “so your publisher knows you’re a team player. It’s very important to be a team player in publishing.” Plus, she says, there is real value in social media—not in selling books, but in building relationships with other authors, your community, and readers.

Bottom line: Rose doesn’t think the current situation will last forever. She says it’s important for midlist authors to realize they personally are not failing. Rather, the publishers are not taking responsibility for lackluster sales. “You have to keep writing until you write the book that takes off. That doesn’t mean there’s anything wrong with your other books.” Until that breakout comes, Rose says authors have to keep themselves alive somehow through their own marketing and publicity efforts. “You can, with thought and care, keep yourself going.”

Meanwhile, Garvin wishes that big publishers would become better literary citizens and rebuild the publishing model so it works for more authors. “Instead of buying up all the publishing houses, how about find your readers?”