Coronavirus Update: May 27, 2020

Print book sales approach a normal sales distribution in May; bookstores and libraries struggle with how to reopen safely

How well book publishing has weathered the pandemic depends entirely on what data points you care to prioritize or which country you live in: you can find both good news and sobering news. One reason to be optimistic: new Nielsen research in the UK shows that time spent with books has doubled during lockdown. (Thrillers and crime are the favored genres in the UK.) However, the same research indicates that readers aren’t necessarily buying more books than before. Some people are scanning their shelves for old favorites or picking up books they never got around to reading.

You can find the more sobering story when looking at the US Census Bureau’s preliminary estimates of bookstore sales. Even though print unit sales are up according to NPD BookScan, the government report shows bookstore sales declining by 33 percent in March. The most obvious explanation for that discrepancy: print sales have drifted to online channels, such as Amazon or Bookshop.

Compare that to the Association of American Publishers’ recently released StatShot, which shows the publishers stable through March 2020. AAP’s StatShot is an estimate of book sales through traditional publishers, so take these figures with a grain of salt; they are subject to revision and not final. Sales are expected to be up compared to March 2019 and to exceed the five-year average for trade (consumer) book sales only. When factoring in educational publishers, sales are down.

Avid book buyers don’t appear to have slowed down their purchasing. We touched base with MJ Rose, an author and marketing expert who runs AuthorBuzz, for her observations on what’s happening in the market. She says everyone was in a kind of panic about the potential effect on book sales when lockdown started, but they soon realized the demographic of people who most often buy books hasn’t been as affected by job or income loss. However, she says, there has been a slowdown in sales for the kinds of books you buy in airports or pick up at the supermarket. But as far as the print book you acquire from a bookstore? Not so much.

Book sales update
While print sales figures in units have shown resilience over the past two months, there has been concern that dollars spent may be on the decline, due to purchase of cheaper formats and types of books (such as children’s books). When figures are available, we’ll mention not just unit sales trends but also the dollar value.

• Week ending May 9. Dollars spent on books increase 12 percent, with continued increased sales in higher-priced adult categories—likely a benefit of Mother’s Day weekend. Overall unit sales are also up compared to the same week in 2019. Hardcover book sales are up 15 percent from the prior week; book sales appear to return to a “normal” sales distribution, rather than being dominated by children’s sales.
• Week ending May 16. Even though print unit sales are down from the prior week, they remain well ahead of 2019 levels. Adult hardcover sales decline this week but match what they were a year ago.
• PublishDrive shows a 23 percent sales increase in April versus March. The ebook distributor, popular among self-publishing genre-fiction authors, released a detailed report showing more rapid growth in international markets and a spike in sales for subscription services and online retailers such as Google and Apple.
• Kobo sees surging demand. The ebook retailer with a strong international presence added 2.2 million new customers during the first quarter. CEO Michael Tamblyn told Publishers Weekly that, in all key markets, including Canada and the United States, sales are up between 35 and 130 percent over last year.

Book category trends
Back to our discussion with MJ Rose: She says there is a big pick-up in feel-good books and historical fiction and a slowdown in psychological suspense. Or, as she puts it, “Whatever you find as an escape is up. And generally things that are dark and difficult aren’t up.” That means some types of psychological thrillers are a little too close to reality. And while pandemic fiction was up for a while, Rose says a lot of outlets, including Amazon, stopped running or refused ads for pandemic fiction, making it difficult to take advantage of increased interest.

• Religious publishers are attempting to offer uplifting content on the crisis. Publishers Weekly looks at titles offering spiritual guidance at an uncertain time.
• We also reach for how-to books in an age of insecurity. The New York Times dives into crafts/hobbies, home/DIY, cooking, and other how-to nonfiction books that are benefiting from everyone’s increased time at home.
• Some cooking categories are selling like hotcakes. According to BookNet Canada, the most popular cooking books focus on bread or entertaining. (Our guess is that the new Magnolia Table book is driving the latter.)
• The coloring-book craze is back. One UK publisher says their sales were up four-fold in April (subscription required).
• One educational publisher pays back its paycheck loan due to booming business. After a 25 percent drop in sales in March, the company thought it needed the money. But sales turned around in April.

Supply chain
Back in April, industry analyst Mike Shatzkin wrote that print-on-demand orders are way up at Ingram, and Ingram has kept extending turnaround times for such orders. It’s now up to a whopping 22 days for a paperback. Belt Publishing’s Anne Trubek recently pointed out in her newsletter (subscription required) that it’s quicker to get a book printed from an offset printer right now than from a POD service. In a recent presentation, the executive director of the Book Manufacturers Institute said that printing (except for package printing) is down overall by about 50 percent over the last month.

In the UK, book wholesaler Bertram is up for sale—a development that was not unexpected. Industry analysts see it as a means for the company to avoid bankruptcy. Unfortunately, the company carries outstanding debts, with publishers owed money from periods prior to the pandemic.

Chain bookstores
The challenges of reopening continue. Here’s the latest.

• Barnes & Noble has begun opening some of its outlets. CEO James Daunt told The New York Times, “Sales are dramatically down but haven’t been eviscerated in quite the way they have been for fashion retailers.” You can learn more about their safety measures in Publishers Weekly.
• UK chains Waterstones and Blackwell’s plan to open on June 15. However, just 28 percent of chain store employees say they are willing to go back in June, according to a survey by The Bookseller (subscription required).
• Revenue at WH Smith has plummeted. The chain has a significant number of shops at airports and train stations that are reliant on travelers; April sales were down 85 percent compared to last year.

Independent bookstores
Two of the Big Five publishers are offering independent bookstores special terms to help with recovery. Macmillan is giving additional discounts on orders placed from June 1 through December 31, 2020, and more flexible payment terms. Hachette as well is offering improved discounts through the end of the year, longer timelines for paying invoices, and credits for freight. A Hachette executive said in a statement, “The survival of independent stores is critical to our business and to the communities that depend on these stores.” Additionally, earlier this year, Penguin Random House offered payment extensions to stores.

As with the chain bookstores, the most immediate challenge for independent bookstores is how to reopen safely. Alexandra Alter at The New York Times reports on several stores across the country and their strategies for allowing customers back into the stores (or, oftentimes, not). Alex Green at Publishers Weekly also has a look at various bookstore practices.

Other developments:

• Shelf Awareness and Sourcebooks launch #ReadIndieForward. The campaign supports indie bookstores and encourages readers to buy one book a week from indies over the next two months and send those books to family and friends, asking recipients to pay it forward with their own friends and families.
• A former bookstore owner in the UK says stores must build resilience. If a second or third wave hits this year or next, stores need to prepare for that now—by reducing stock and curating more. Read at The Bookseller.
• France’s bookstores fight for survival. France is unique in that its government supports national culture and has a law that prevents bookstores from slashing prices—in order to protect writers. Even so, margins are tight. Learn more.
• German bookstores are on the rebound for now. Now that stores have been open for several weeks now, sales have returned to about 80 to 85 percent of comparable sales from the same period last year. Even more detail on the situation can be found at Publishing Perspectives.
• New Zealand reports booming business. Booksellers are pleased at how sales are “like Christmas” now that the lockdown has ended. 

Amazon
The New York Times has a long piece on Amazon’s biggest warehouse outbreak in the foothills of the Poconos in Pennsylvania. Karen Wiese writes, “Local lawmakers believe that more than 100 workers have tested positive for the virus, but the exact number is unknown. At first, Amazon told workers about each new case. But when the total reached about 60, the announcements stopped giving specific numbers.”

Meanwhile, Amazon has reopened its distribution centers in France after a labor dispute with workers, who said sufficient safety protocols were not in place to protect them from the virus.

Book publishers
Employees of the Big Five, New York–based publishers continue to work from home, and successfully so, at least according to the CEO of Penguin Random House, Madeline McIntosh. In a letter to employees, she wrote, “We can afford to stay remote for the time being without hurting our business or negatively impacting authors, retailers, or other business partners.”

McIntosh also updated authors in the company’s monthly newsletter: “Happily, the structure on which our role as a publisher stands—the physical supply chain we use to take your books from printers to booksellers around the world—has stayed strong.” In March, PRH launched an initiative called #BooksConnectUs, which pivots the company toward more digitally oriented, direct-to-consumer marketing and promotion.

Elsewhere:

• UK-based Bloomsbury—the publisher of the Harry Potter series—released an earnings report showing stability. April sales were down 3 percent from last year (considered a good result), with print revenues at 87 percent of last year’s sales and academic digital revenues up over 52 percent year on year. However, the company expects print sales to decline 60 to 65 percent during lockdown.

• French publishers plan cutbacks. About one-quarter of French publishers expect to lose more than 40 percent of their anticipated 2020 revenues.
• The Arts Council England has provided much-needed relief to small publishers. Just about every grant recipient has expressed they’re not sure how they would’ve continued without the grants. Read more in The Bookseller (subscription required).

Libraries
Now entering their third month of closure, some libraries are unable to continue paying employees and are considering layoffs or furloughs. Cutbacks may be inevitable as tax collection drops and state budgets shrink. (Here’s a crowdsourced list of institutions affected thus far, divided up by state.) Then there’s the challenge of maintaining safety for employees and patrons during reopening. Library Journal reports here on best practices.

Book-marketing considerations
Publishing industry professionals expect book marketing to be forever changed as a result of coronavirus, pushing everyone toward more direct-to-consumer and digital marketing—which, on the plus side, can reach and be accessible to a much wider audience. We’re tracking how publishers, authors, and booksellers talk about new best practices for spreading that critical word of mouth.

• To market and sell adult fiction, lower the ebook price—and market the discount. When we spoke with author and marketer MJ Rose at AuthorBuzz about adult fiction marketing during COVID, she says she’s noticed that ebooks can double in sales right now under the right conditions—if they’re priced under $6.99. From Blood and Ash by Jennifer Armentrout, which was released in March from Blue Box Press, is “going like crazy” Rose says; it’s selling about 500 copies a day and is priced at $5.99. That’s still a really healthy price point, she says, given that, not so long ago, a paperback might go for $6 or $7. “You make money and the reader gets enormous value for their dollars.” Rose says she’s surprised that publishers aren’t taking more advantage. “Some are lowering prices, but they’re not doing anything to tell people prices are lower. Nobody knows—including the author. It’s a great time to do it, but nobody can buy a book if they don’t know it exists or they don’t know that the price has been lowered.”
• Learn how authors and publishers can effectively launch a new book in the near term: We’ve found two insightful sessions so far. First, publicist and marketer Claire McKinney offers a free one-hour talk on how to plan (video starts at 7:08), with a specific task list. And Smith Publicity partnered with BookExpo to offer a panel discussion, including small publishers and a Wattpad representative, on Book Marketing Recovery Strategies & Predictions for Fall 2020 and Beyond.
• Children’s publishers have been among those at the forefront of digital marketing innovation—offering online events, interactive activities, and helpful resources for parents, educators, and children. In June, UK’s Puffin imprint (under Penguin Random House) will launch the weeklong Festival of Big Dreams. Events will take place on YouTube and Facebook Live channels and include masterclasses by authors and illustrators, draw-alongs, and creative challenges. In the US, Candlewick is launching an online summer camp with 12 weeks of free online education for kids in grades one through 12. Publishers Weekly reports, “Campers will be divided into virtual cabins by age group and participate in workshops, read-alouds, and other activities.” The camp’s hub will be the Candlewick Stay Home site.
• JK Rowling is releasing a standalone fairytale for free online and asking children to illustrate the published edition. It will be posted in 34 weekly installments, then later formally published in one volume this November by Little, Brown Young Readers in the UK. Rowling promises to give all royalties to those particularly affected by the pandemic.
• If you’d like an inside peek at how big publishers market to book clubs, check out the now-virtual Book Group Speed Dating Event, ordinarily held in person at BookExpo. On Friday, May 29, ReadingGroupGuides will host its ninth annual event with representatives from 25 publishers, who will share selections in a speed-dating format designed to give booksellers, librarians, and book group leaders an inside look at new and upcoming titles ideal for book groups. Advance signup is required.
• Related to book-club marketing: In partnership with BookMovement (a book club site), which reaches 70,000 book clubs accounting for 700,000 readers, AuthorBuzz is helping authors host virtual book launches using Zoom, with live broadcast to Facebook. Learn more about the paid advertising opportunity.