In our 2017 wrap-up, we mentioned that traditional publishing’s performance has been relying on growth in print backlist and audio—with frontlist sales lagging. Now that end-of-year numbers are in from BookScan after the holiday season (among the most important weeks of the year for bookstore sales), we have a few more observations to share.
BookScan reflects a 1.9 percent gain in print book sales over 2016, driven by a near 7 percent gain in backlist sales. However, mass merchandisers (e.g., Walmart) experienced a 6.8 percent decline in their sales in 2017, and independent bookstores benefited from a 2.6 gain. Since Barnes & Noble performed very poorly (keep reading), Amazon sales are a factor in the industry’s overall print gain.
Michael Cader at Publishers Lunch noted that, by mid-December 2015, five titles had sold over 1 million units during the year (subscription required). In 2016, there was only one title to reach that sales level: Harry Potter and the Cursed Child. In 2017, no new title reached the million-copy mark. Cader also observed that, during the biggest holiday week of sales, top titles in 2017 underperformed by about 11 percent relative to 2016 (subscription required). Final figures on ebook sales will not be available until later in 2018, but they will certainly be down, making 2017 a flat year for traditional publishers.
In the UK, the Bookseller oddly reports (paywall) that the print book market grew even though copies sold were down 2.6 percent from 2016. Their headline is based on growth of dollars (increased prices) rather than unit volume, although that growth was .09 percent.
And that brings us to Barnes & Noble, which had a worse holiday season than anticipated. Their sales fell 6.4 percent compared to last year. As a result, B&N lowered its financial forecast for the full fiscal year, which ends in April. The news sent the stock price tumbling.
Bottom line: Whatever you would like to believe about publishing’s performance in recent years, it’s quite easy to find the statistics to support your story. “Print is back!” is the story favored by mainstream media and the publishers themselves, especially when looking at the strength (or “return”) of independent bookstores. Publishers Weekly pointed out that print unit sales have risen every year since 2013—but how much of that is a result of Amazon’s strength (and publishers’ high ebook pricing)? A frequent talking point is now the frontlist-backlist divide, or how new titles are not selling as strongly as in past years, with nonfiction dominating as fiction declines. Is that the new normal? We’ll keep you informed.
Jane Friedman has spent her entire career working in the publishing industry, with a focus on business reporting and author education. Established in 2015, her newsletter The Bottom Line provides nuanced market intelligence to thousands of authors and industry professionals; in 2023, she was named Publishing Commentator of the Year by Digital Book World.
Jane’s expertise regularly features in major media outlets such as The New York Times, The Atlantic, NPR, The Today Show, Wired, The Guardian, Fox News, and BBC. Her book, The Business of Being a Writer, Second Edition (The University of Chicago Press), is used as a classroom text by many writing and publishing degree programs. She reaches thousands through speaking engagements and workshops at diverse venues worldwide, including NYU’s Advanced Publishing Institute, Frankfurt Book Fair, and numerous MFA programs.
