These are the news stories and topics I’ll be following closely this year.
Expansion in audio: short-form audio and ad-supported audio
Last year, Spotify encouraged independent authors to submit short work for audiobook publication. The first cohort released in October 2025, and Spotify is currently open for another round of submissions through April of this year. They’re looking for commercial fiction, 10,000 to 20,000 words, written specifically for audio. Authors retain print and ebook rights and can distribute and sell those formats on any platform.
Spotify is far from the only audio streaming service demonstrating interest in short-form audio, but given other indicators in the market, I expect 2026 may be a significant year for short-form audio in both traditional publishing and self-publishing. Indie authors are getting more creative in how they monetize audio, especially now that AI narration has brought down costs for experimentation. Some are releasing serializations for free on YouTube or via podcasts, monetizing through ads. See my reporting from December 2025.
Last but not least: Keep an eye on Quinn, a subscription app focused on audio erotica, which produces 15–20 minute sensual readings. Learn more.
AI translation: lots of growth (and also pushback)
In December 2025, French translators working for Harlequin (HarperCollins France) learned the publisher will use AI for translations of some of its short romances. Human translators will still be involved, albeit paid at a lower rate, to edit the machine output in French. This is merely the first domino—expect more “experiments,” especially with imprints or genres with declining sales or unproven demand for translation. While AI translation won’t work perfectly for every book or every language—and it’s unlikely to exclude humans entirely—it doesn’t have to. It just has to meaningfully bring down the cost. The big publishers at minimum will chase such opportunities and—in a best-case scenario—perhaps translate more work as a result. Self-publishing authors may especially benefit as AI translation becomes more sophisticated, although meaningfully marketing and promoting translations is another matter. The firm to watch in this space is UK-based GlobeScribe. I reported on them in August 2025. No doubt many people will object to publishers and authors using AI translations, but that will not stop the momentum.
AI copyright lawsuit I continue to follow
The 12 copyright infringement cases against OpenAI and Microsoft—some filed in California, some filed in New York—have been consolidated in New York, where a single judge is coordinating discovery and proceedings. The high-profile suits brought by the Authors Guild, the New York Times, and more are included; collectively these cases deal with AI training performed on all types of work, from newspaper journalism to novels. Some of these cases are class-action and include any writers whose work was used for AI training without permission or licensing. In its decision to consolidate the cases, a judicial panel concluded that the cases “involve common questions of fact.”
Most of the plaintiffs were against consolidation, partly because they believed there to be material differences in the complaints (e.g., fiction versus nonfiction infringement and infringement in inputs versus outputs). But the decision says, “These differences in claims and the underlying material alleged to be infringed do not present a significant obstacle to centralization given the substantial overlap in factual questions and discovery relating to defendants’ training of their LLMs. It is not uncommon for transferee courts to establish separate tracks for actions involving differing claims that allow the actions to progress efficiently.”
The lawsuits against Meta for its AI-model training (some brought by the same plaintiffs) remain separate.
See this AI lawsuit chart by ChatGPT Is Eating the World for an overview of cases.
Another lawsuit to keep watching: Tracy Wolff plagiarism case
In late 2024, I ran a long analysis of the Crave series copyright case brought by author Lynne Freeman against author Tracy Wolff, publisher Entangled, literary agent Emily Sylvan Kim, and others. That case is now headed to jury trial in the Southern District of New York. Freeman alleges that the series bears “overwhelming and undeniable” similarities to her unpublished work that was submitted to agent Emily Sylvan Kim, who also represents Tracy Wolff. The judge encouraged both parties to settle, to no avail. The issues in the case have become so notable that even a writer at the New Yorker decided to tackle it (subscription required)—in a fair and balanced way, without coming down on either side. I’m not a lawyer, but I fear Freeman is not going to win, and she’s already paid a boatload of money and sold off her home to keep this lawsuit going.
Substack goes all-in on advertising
Last year, the Wall Street Journal did a terrific piece looking at how much Substack writers are charging for newsletter ads and sponsorships (five figures, in some cases). Not long after, Substack announced it was looking into offering its users a way to accept and integrate ads and sponsorships. (A pilot program is currently underway.) Since day one, Substack has said it will not run ads, but Substack is leaving a lot of money on the table by not building and offering a sponsor or advertising network of some kind. And they need more revenue—they’re not yet profitable.
Nonfiction decline deepens
I love nonfiction, so it gives me no pleasure to say this, but I think the declining sales of nonfiction will continue in 2026. Of the top nonfiction bestsellers in 2025, only one of them (Kamala Harris’s campaign memoir) was published in 2025. Mel Robbins’s self-help book The Let Them Theoryperformed best and released in 2024; Circana BookScan’s Brenna Connor told the New York Times that Robbins is “essentially carrying the entire self-help category right now.” The bright spot for nonfiction is in the Christian market: sales of Bibles, Bible studies, and other religious titles have been growing in the double digits.
Why the nonfiction decline? Most agents and publishers cite escapism, given the current sociopolitical environment. But more than that, I think it’s the increasing competition of other information sources that are right at your fingertips when you need them; they may require less time and even provide more clarity. Pick your favorite: newsletters, podcasts, information-rich social media posts, short-form video, long-form video, online education of all kinds. People can get the insight they need without buying or spending time on a book. The bright side: Audiobook sales are increasing, and that includes nonfiction.
What Others Say about 2026
- What should happen in marketing and publicity in 2026? Publicist Kathleen Schmidt avoids predictions and instead discusses how the industry needs to change. One of my favorite bits: “The industry must accept that some books absolutely will not get attention from legacy media and move towards what works for each book, whether that’s a marketing-heavy campaign or just pitching podcasts. Why are we still creating arbitrary publicity plans for every title when we know most of it is b.s.?” Read at Publishing Confidential.
- Agent Carly Watters offers seven publishing predictions for 2026. She mentions the challenges of a K-shaped economy, where rich people have money to spend but many others can only afford the essentials. Read all seven predictions on Threads.
- UK’s The Bookseller collects predictions from industry leaders for 2026. The CEO of HarperCollins UK is paying attention to subscription boxes (e.g., FairyLoot) and TikTok Shop. Pan Macmillan’s CEO believes romantasy will continue to dominate and sees opportunity in nonfiction audio. Read (subscription may be required).
- PublishDrive offers predictions for indie authors. CEO Kinga Jentetics believes that authors will keep translation rights, AI narration will make audiobooks ubiquitous, and direct sales will become primary revenue, among many other predictions. Read.
Were my 2025 predictions accurate?
Here’s what I discussed a year ago.
- 👍🏻👎🏻 AI lawsuit decisions and licensing agreements. I knew it would be an important year for the AI lawsuits, but I failed to accurately predict which one would lead to the record-breaking settlement: Anthropic v. Bartz. The top cases I continue to watch, the New York Times and Authors Guild against OpenAI and Microsoft, are still in progress. I also expected Created by Humans to publicly announce AI partners in 2025, but this has not yet happened.
- 👍🏻👎🏻 Forthcoming US government legislation regarding AI. Yes and no. President Trump issued an executive order preempting state AI laws. Congress has yet to pass any legislation.
- 👍🏻 Growth in AI narration for everyone everywhere. Absolutely.
- 👍🏻 Trump’s tariffs create headaches. They have indeed created confusion for the publishing industry about what’s affected and what’s not. Tariffs have also led to Canadians focusing on purchases of Canadian authors and books.
- 👍🏻 A very deluxe 2025. I believed that deluxe editions and limited editions would continue to do well for publishers and authors. Yes.
- 👍🏻👎🏻 Romantasy shows the glimmerings of a plateau. Book fair reporting shows some anecdotal exhaustion from agents and publishers, but sales remain robust and deals are up by 55 percent in 2025.
- 👍🏻 TikTok will continue to operate in the US. Yes.
- 👍🏻 Substack woos “high-volume publishers.” Yes, 2025 saw many major media organizations, including the New Yorker and The Economist, start an offshoot publication on Substack.
Jane Friedman has spent her entire career working in the publishing industry, with a focus on business reporting and author education. Established in 2015, her newsletter The Bottom Line provides nuanced market intelligence to thousands of authors and industry professionals; in 2023, she was named Publishing Commentator of the Year by Digital Book World.
Jane’s expertise regularly features in major media outlets such as The New York Times, The Atlantic, NPR, The Today Show, Wired, The Guardian, Fox News, and BBC. Her book, The Business of Being a Writer, Second Edition (The University of Chicago Press), is used as a classroom text by many writing and publishing degree programs. She reaches thousands through speaking engagements and workshops at diverse venues worldwide, including NYU’s Advanced Publishing Institute, Frankfurt Book Fair, and numerous MFA programs.
