What Everyone Else Thought about 2018—and What’s Ahead

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We reached out to authors, agents, and industry experts for their insights into the business in 2018 and what they anticipate for 2019

Here at Hot Sheet, we like to offer a 360-degree perspective on the industry, so we reached out to people we think have unique insights into the publishing business and aren’t afraid to share direct and frank observations. Here they are, in their own words.

Marie Force, romance author: The only thing that has consistently helped to grow my career is the books and giving the readers more of what they want from me. That’s my exclusive goal in 2019 and every year. By focusing on the one thing I control, I keep my business somewhat immune to the changing tides. On the Nook side of the business, it’s as robust for me as it ever has been. I continue to feel that BN’s “imminent” demise is greatly overstated, especially in light of the news that they are planning to open new stores.

Mark Coker, founder of ebook distributor Smashwords: Amazon proved that books can be commoditized, much to the delusional denial of most publishers and authors. This commoditization remains central to Amazon’s long-term strategy because producers of commodities cannot hold power over Amazon. … Amazon’s future is pay-to-play. To even tread water at Amazon, authors and publishers must pay Amazon for ads, accept lower margins, and surrender independence. These tolls sap the industry’s long-term vitality. Despite amazing innovation taking place outside Amazon, to date the industry has shown it’s incapable of saving itself from Amazon. Intervention from a higher power may be necessary.

MJ Rose, author and marketer: 2018 wins: Audio! Audio! Audio! [Publishers are] spending money buying good exclusive products, producing them sparing no expense, and spending serious money advertising—not just online but on TV, reaching people who don’t see any other book marketing. Listeners hungry for discovery are responding. 2018 failures/disappointments: The lack of in-depth investigative reporting on declining book sales of traditionally published books. Reporters took publishers’ word for it that lagging book sales were due to less people reading because of our political climate and streaming video. Codex-Group’s Peter Hildick-Smith has the research to [identify] the real culprits: the high cost of traditional publishers’ ebooks vs Amazon-published and self-published ebooks. Readers aren’t reading less, but legions of them have all but abandoned anything over $9.99. Trends: There’s so much noise out there; readers report being lost. Discovery is a mystery that publishers still struggle with. More than ever, curators are key. Target and Costco picks can catapult a title into that critical-mass position needed to take a book over the tipping point. Reese Witherspoon and Book of the Month Club can give a book the exposure it needs to hit big. BookBub, Book Movement, POPSUGAR, theSkimm, and Goodreads lists and articles are also key influencers. If anything I hope we see even more curators come to the forefront in 2019.

Sebastian Posth, entrepreneur and consultant in the publishing industry, with a focus on blockchain technology, digital innovation, data analytics, and market research: In 2018, I was lucky to be able to continue my deep dive into blockchain technology. It is beginning to shape my thinking about how the industry might develop over the coming years. Contrary to what we hear quite often, blockchain will not solve problems of piracy and rights abuses. Instead of DRM, it seems to me that license management will be an application where blockchain might be of use: offering or discovering content licenses on a decentralized ledger, enabling trusted peer-to-peer transactions without the need for intermediaries or centralized services, institutions, or payment providers. In art and gaming, you already see the decentralized marketplaces emerging. This will happen in publishing as well. The principal concept behind that model is called tokenization. The term is my personal nomination for the trend to watch, because tokenization will significantly shape the industry. Blockchain is not an invention that will maybe, if we are lucky, improve the existing models or applications a bit here and there. It is comparable to the introduction of the internet to an analog world, now adding another, entirely new layer on top of the internet. It will take 25 years, but we will have a totally different digital media environment.

Kevin Tumlinson & Dan Wood, directors with ebook distributor Draft2Digital: 2018 was a year of rough patches. … Among the road bumps of 2018, we saw Amazon increasingly favor paid advertising, dubious trademark claims, and policy changes that led to decreased revenue and even canceled accounts, with effectively no recourse. The more positive perspective includes some really interesting shifts away from ebook-only distribution and Amazon exclusivity and toward wide distribution and additional formats, such as print and audiobooks. Authors also gained a new array of distribution options, including greater reach to libraries and Kobo’s strategic partnership with Walmart. … International translation and sales will continue to rise. Authors will realize the potential of foreign rights distribution and film and television rights. Libraries will continue to be a growing and lucrative market for authors, as will subscription services. Collaboration will be huge for 2019, with more authors working together to find and reach new readers. Collaborative and cooperative will become the buzzwords of 2019.

Szilvia Molnar, literary agent with Sterling Lord Literistic: I think in the past it was easier to spot obvious buzzy manuscripts, but now our work is more about having nuanced conversations about the books and really targeting the right publishers abroad. As more publishing houses continue to merge and lists are slimming down or changing to reflect what is temporarily working in the United States, we have to tailor our submissions even more than before to make our authors stand out. Something that has been particularly obvious this year is how well our books are doing abroad. … That reflects how strong our titles are, but perhaps more notably that we are collaborating with the best publishers abroad and nurturing our relationships with them. I’d like to spend next year continuing to strengthen those relationships and finding new ones. In terms of trends for 2019, I think in the US we’re still very much fixated about power—who has it, how they got it, what they’re going to do with it, and perhaps how to take it away from them—and we’ll see more of that in fiction with strong female characters taking control over stories, but also stories being told by powerless voices that need to be heard. In nonfiction we’ll keep seeing memoirs about high-profile people as we continue to be fascinated by their journey to reach the top (or how they reached the top, fell off it, and then came up again). But I’d also love to see more books on masculinity—how it can and should be questioned, reshaped, and transformed.

Friederike Fuxen, rights director with Loewe Verlag in Bindlach, Germany: Internationally, we have talked this year a lot about strong female protagonists and books for early readers. In children’s books, we’ve been asked for less text, more illustrations. Foreign rights sales have become so important. Our authors and illustrators are hearing more and more from us about new editions of their stories in countries and languages all over the world. I’m looking at 2019 and thinking that, right now, we often discuss issue-driven nonfiction titles, which became so on-the-spot in 2019. We look forward to that trend growing, and we’re also seeing a new appetite for short stories about boys and men who dare to be different, both contemporary and in history. Authors, illustrators, and publishers should keep their eyes open for people who stand up and out. Overall, kids and young adults want to learn that dreams can come true; that’s the best message we think really will sell well this year.

Jackie Kaiser, president of Westwood Creative Artists (a Toronto-based literary agency): 2018 saw a solidification of publishers’ active pursuit of—and genuine interest in—fresh perspectives and underrepresented voices. We see that trend continuing in 2019 and being applicable across genres, from children’s literature to memoir, general nonfiction, and literary as well as commercial fiction. We also see greater publisher openness to essay- or novella-length manuscripts that would previously have been deemed too brief for book form. These works appeal to readers who want the satisfaction of having read a book but who don’t have the time for a bigger commitment.

Evangelia Avloniti, founder of Ersilia Literary Agency in Athens, Greece: What surprised me in 2018 was the fact the Germany “lost” roughly 7 million readers to their mobile phones and other distractions. [For more on this, see coverage here.] What did not come as a surprise is that it’s no longer the ebook industry but Amazon Prime, Netflix, and the plethora of uncurated book titles available out there that are considered the “biggest threats” to the trade book market. What 2018 has taught me … is that you cannot go wrong with high-quality self-help and children’s books. One thing I have found myself saying most often to authors is “It might take some time and considerable effort, but we will get there.” As regards 2019, I am by nature cautiously optimistic. However, given the precarious state of the European and US markets, the uncertainty of Brexit, and the unpredictability of the US administration, I will choose to remain more cautious than optimistic until 2019 proves us gloriously wrong, of course. It is difficult to predict trends, but given the recent statistics, at least as far as the English-speaking market is concerned, I am taking an educated guess that socio-political nonfiction as well as politically sensitive fiction will be on the rise. My advice to publishers would be to place their emphasis on smaller and more carefully curated lists. The plethora of uncurated titles out there as well as the facelessness of the big conglomerates can be rather disorienting for the majority of readers. In our largely impersonal world, it’s not quantity but quality—personal connection and empathy—that we need the most, I believe.   

Joanna Penn, author and entrepreneur, UK: Opportunities with audiobooks continue to expand for indie authors, and … podcasting will continue to grow as effective marketing for audiobooks, as well as a way for authors to connect directly with a listening public. I also predict that indies will take an increasing market share of print sales through print-on-demand formats like hardbacks and large print as well as paperback. What’s old is new again.

Other 2018 Roundups, If You Can’t Get Enough

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