It took roughly 24 hours after the US election for everyone to begin prognosticating over how a second Trump term will affect the writing and publishing community. About the only thing you can bet on: It will be unpredictable. But here are the key issues that concern the industry so far.
Tariffs
In 2019, the Trump administration placed a 15 percent tariff (halved less than a year later) on books manufactured in China. US publishers have typically been reliant on printing work done in China, especially for full-color books, children’s books, gift books, educational materials, and children’s books. (For example, Workman said that 75 percent of its books at that time were printed in China.)
People from the publishing industry testified in Washington in 2019 about the damaging effects of tariffs; the Association of American Publishers noted that “particular book printing and binding that is expertly and economically done in China for the US market involves long-standing specialized technical manufacturing processes resulting from global specialization that occurred decades ago, in the 1980s.” There was a reprieve from tariffs for certain sectors of publishing (such as Bibles and religious materials); fortunately the highest tariffs never in fact came to pass.
This time, the tariffs could prove more problematic because of a contracting paper and printing market—meaning publishers have fewer places to turn to than they did in 2019. At a recent book manufacturing conference, one expert said the market could become a hot mess if new tariffs are placed on paper coming from China.
We reached out to Brian O’Leary, executive director of the Book Industry Study Group, for his thoughts on the situation. He wrote, “Anyone (organization or individual) sourcing books outside the US market is right to be concerned about the impact of tariffs, particularly given the lead times for making decisions about where a book is printed and how it is shipped. The 2016 tariffs included a number of exceptions that limited the impact on certain types of books, and renewed lobbying for similar exceptions in 2025 is likely. I’d be surprised if people are not already looking at what they could do differently if tariffs are implemented for books sourced outside the United States.”
If publishers are pushed to source domestically, that has the potential to affect print runs, paper choices, and finishing options. But in some cases, O’Leary said, the ability to source in the US may not exist: “It’s important to develop alternatives outside the markets that are most likely to be targeted for higher tariffs. There’s a lot of guessing but no certainty about which markets those might be, so we’re entering an important time to stay on top of what is happening legislatively. If you’re a member of a trade association, they’ll certainly be working to tell you what’s going on. Your current suppliers will also be paying a lot of attention to proposed tariffs, and they may be able to share information with you.”
Those who work at publishing houses should bookmark this recent BISG discussion about supply chain issues. BISG also will offer a lunch-and-learn on global shippingon December 3.
Lawsuits by Trump against book publishers
Trump’s first term saw lawsuits, alleging false and defamatory statements, against book publishers who deigned to publish any book that criticized him. Even though none of the lawsuits went anywhere, that process is likely to repeat, and—in fact—in the weeks before the election, Trump threatened to file a lawsuit against Penguin Random House for the book Lucky Loser, authored by New York Times journalists.
Cuts to arts funding
Kenneth Whyte, a Canadian publisher, offers a cogent argument for why a second Trump administration, unlike the first, may be successful in slashing funding for the National Endowment for the Arts and the National Endowment for the Humanities. He writes, “The difficulty of reducing other [US government] spending puts the arts in greater jeopardy—something will have to be cut, and the cultural agencies are a rich target. Not rich in monetary terms—they represent less than 0.02 percent of total federal spending—but in symbolic value. … Trump knows that the arts community is hostile toward him and he’s not above retribution. Nor are his followers, who can be counted on to cheer if he succeeds in shuttering the NEA and NPR.”
Government scrutiny of Big Tech
Big Tech companies have been a favored target of the Dept. of Justice and Federal Trade Commission in recent years. Of particular interest to book publishing, in September 2023 the FTC filed a lawsuit against Amazon for illegal monopoly power, plus the head of the FTC, Lina Khan, has argued in favor of regulating AI technology. However, just about everyone expects Khan to be quickly dismissed by Trump, so keep an eye out for the next person in charge. The New York Times recently reported on how a Trump administration might deal with Big Tech this time around. Given the differing views of those surrounding Trump on Big Tech and antitrust, it’s a near guarantee things will be interesting.
Book banning
On Nov. 6, Lit Hub published a piece that claims Project 2025, also known as the 2025 Presidential Transition Project, regards all LGBTQ+ content as pornography and will endeavor to ban LGBTQ+ books, as well as imprison its creators. That’s because the Project 2025 foreword states the following: “Pornography, manifested today in the omnipresent propagation of transgender ideology and sexualization of children … has no claim to First Amendment protection. Its purveyors are child predators and misogynistic exploiters of women. Their product is as addictive as any illicit drug and as psychologically destructive as any crime. Pornography should be outlawed. The people who produce and distribute it should be imprisoned. Educators and public librarians who purvey it should be classed as registered sex offenders. And telecommunications and technology firms that facilitate its spread should be shuttered.”
Neither “transgender ideology” nor pornography is mentioned again in the nearly 1,000-page Project 2025 document, except for two mentions of how to stop child pornography. Bookstores and libraries don’t come up (and neither do book banning or imprisonment for authors). The term LGBTQ+ is mentioned several times, but always in relation to dismantling government DEI and equity initiatives or defunding programs that spread critical race theory or “gender ideology.”
While the foreword does read as an extreme, over-the-top manifesto, as journalist Isaac Saul has reported, “Many of the policies in the Project 2025 agenda are ideas that conservatives have been trumpeting for years.” Meaning: Little of their policy agenda is new or surprising if you’ve been paying attention. For years, state and school board legislation has increasingly targeted specific types of books and educational materials, particularly those believed to “sexualize” children, especially in schools and public libraries.
Such legislation has not gone unchallenged. Industry organizations and the biggest publishers (including Penguin Random House) have filed suit against many state actions. (Here’s a summary at PRH’s site.) PEN America maintains a thorough report on what’s been happening, last updated on Nov. 1, and it’s sobering. Some states have threatened to imprison librarians for distributing material that’s considered obscene or pornographic. A Trump administration could embolden states and school boards to regulate and ban even more materials. There has already been a chilling effect on teachers and librarians, who increasingly choose to self-censor, and the majority of censorship in the years ahead may in fact be self-censorship. For those wishing to get involved in the hard censorship aspects, Kelly Jensen at Book Riot frequently posts guidance; here’s the latest.
What about book sales?
Immediately after Trump’s election in 2016, sales of dystopian books skyrocketed. The same thing is happening now. There was also a big sales bump for political and current events books, most of them analyzing or exposing the inner workings of the Trump administration or explaining how he came to power or how he gained such widespread support. Nonfiction sales have been suffering for most of Biden’s term, but improvement may lie ahead, as an untold number of journalists, academics, insiders, and politicians make sense of current events and what’s happening behind closed doors. And of course many nonfiction titles will certainly be published that offer solace, support, and marching orders for progressives.
Jane Friedman has spent her entire career working in the publishing industry, with a focus on business reporting and author education. Established in 2015, her newsletter The Bottom Line provides nuanced market intelligence to thousands of authors and industry professionals; in 2023, she was named Publishing Commentator of the Year by Digital Book World.
Jane’s expertise regularly features in major media outlets such as The New York Times, The Atlantic, NPR, The Today Show, Wired, The Guardian, Fox News, and BBC. Her book, The Business of Being a Writer, Second Edition (The University of Chicago Press), is used as a classroom text by many writing and publishing degree programs. She reaches thousands through speaking engagements and workshops at diverse venues worldwide, including NYU’s Advanced Publishing Institute, Frankfurt Book Fair, and numerous MFA programs.
