Traditional Publishers Emphasize Nonfiction and Children’s

Year-end results plus new imprints highlight increasing nonfiction sales and declines in fiction

Unsurprisingly—as it’s been the sales trend for the last year—traditional publishers wrapped up 2018 with a slight gain in print unit sales, with adult nonfiction leading the way with a 4.9 percent increase over 2017, based on NPD BookScan figures. Per Publishers Marketplace (subscription required), cooking and entertaining have enjoyed the most growth of any single nonfiction category—maybe not everyone’s first guess, given current events and attention on political titles.

Readers with a good memory may recall that we reported on the growth of the cookbook category back in May 2018, when BookScan reps spoke at BookExpo. People are spending more time at home preparing quality meals, so sales of books focused on special appliances (Instant Pots and air fryers), low-carb diets, and vegetarian cooking are on the rise—and a good number of sales are coming from small presses and self-published authors capitalizing on the trend. (That said, keep in mind the cookbook Magnolia Table by Joanna Gaines was the number-two bestselling book of the year in the US, topped only by Michelle Obama’s Becoming.)

Meanwhile, adult fiction continued its decline, with a 4.6 percent drop from 2017 unit sales. However, adult hardcover unit sales are particularly strong, and because hardcovers carry a higher price than paperbacks, that’s good news for publisher revenues. (Trade paperback sales are more or less flat; mass-market paperback sales are on a long decline. Here’s more detail from Jim Milliott in Publishers Weekly.)

Growth in children’s publishing was driven by nonfiction sales as well; YA nonfiction was up 8.5 percent, according to BookScan. Board book sales continue to accelerate in growth every year; BookScan reps have said that millennials are nostalgic for their past and want traditional media for their children.

Other year-end results:

• Canadian print books stayed flat in 2018. Adult nonfiction increased 1.5 percent, but fiction declined a half percent.
• Indie bookstore sales were up 5 percent in 2018. The American Booksellers Association is celebrating that, over the last five years, compound growth at independent booksellers is 7.5 percent.
• Holiday sales showed strength at Barnes & Noble compared to last year. However, that growth was driven by discounts and advertising. Their latest report says, “Due to the increased advertising expenditure and increased promotional activity, earnings guidance may be reduced by as much as 10 percent.”

January is a ripe time for new-imprint announcements from traditional publishers. Here’s what we’ve spotted so far—a list notable for an almost exclusive emphasis on adult and children’s nonfiction.

• Europa launches Compass, a nonfiction imprint. It will feature titles on travel, contemporary culture, popular science, history, philosophy, and politics. Learn more in Publishers Weekly from John Maher.
• Simon & Schuster is debuting the Masters at Work series. Experienced journalists are commissioned to cover different careers and how people made it to the top of their professions. Read Jim Milliott in Publishers Weekly.
• Simon & Schuster is also launching Signal Press. The nonfiction imprint focuses on current public debate around feminism, politics, and social justice. Read Calvin Reid in Publishers Weekly.
• Sourcebooks is expanding its children’s division and creating three new imprints. Sourcebooks Young Readers focuses on middle-grade fiction and nonfiction. Sourcebooks eXplore does younger kids’ nonfiction. Sourcebooks Wonderland includes licensed, customized, and regional products. Read Claire Kirch in Publishers Weekly.
• Canadian nonfiction publisher Greystone Books is launching Greystone Kids this fall. It will publish picture books and nonfiction books for middle-grade readers with a focus on topics like natural history, the environment, sports, and social justice. Also, a new imprint within the Greystone Kids program, Aldana Libros, will bring international titles to the English-speaking market. Read more in Quill & Quire.

For those of you wondering about the fortunes of adult fiction: We read a recent issue of Publishers Lunch very attentively when it featured a rare Q&A (subscription required) with a Big Five editor, Mitzi Angel, svp and publisher of Farrar, Straus and Giroux. She tells interviewer Sara Grace that she makes decisions fairly quickly on fiction, “sometimes based on the first paragraph or two.” Angel then adds, “What I’m looking for is fiction that very quickly establishes a sense of urgency. That sense of a voice needing to be heard, whether or not that voice is in the first person. A worldview immediately establishing itself, even in the shape of a sentence.” Part of that attitude appears to be in recognition that the game has become more challenging for fiction. When questioned on this, Angel says, “The numbers over here [in the US] are pretty sobering. It’s complicated, of course, but when I compare US literary fiction numbers to UK ones, I find that the UK numbers are often larger. It’s striking: the UK is a much smaller country. So yes, it’s hard. And it’s harder than it was. If I’m honest about it, I don’t know why. People are certainly reading the big political books. Is that part of the answer? That people are dismayed and distracted by the events of our time? Maybe so.”

Bottom line: Frankfurt Book Fair, which happens in October of every year, can be an indicator of where publishing winds blow in the US as well as globally. Publishers Marketplace—which tracks dealmaking in relation to the show—reported robust deals in nonfiction, with fiction deals declining and children’s remaining steady. But as an aside, Cader pointed out, “One trend that’s good for the business at large that jumps out from this year’s stats is an area we do not usually track that closely: … a big surge in seasonal film and TV deals for books.” At that point in 2018, such dealmaking was running about 40 percent higher than average. In a recent roundtable of young leaders in publishing, literary agent Melissa Edwards said she sees increasing ties between publishing and Hollywood.