In a new report this week from Author Earnings’ Data Guy, the “October surprise” downturn in the indie share of Amazon ebook sales seems all but forgotten. Very near the end of the new report, it gets this scant reference: “Indie ebook market share, after the sudden sharp drop that we reported in October 2016, seems to have bounced back a little in 2017.” That turns out to be a very small bounce-back indeed. (See our October coverage here.)
Maybe without any way to shed light on this loss of indie share over many months, the main part of the Author Earnings report this time turns to combined Amazon, Apple, B&N, and Kobo ebook sales in the US, UK, Canadian, Australian, and New Zealand markets, which are, of course, five major English-language territories.
The new report—which adds the territorial element to October 2015’s multi-retailer report—is said to be an effort to look at the 15 largest ebook retailers in the top five English-language countries, comprising “750,000 top-selling ebook titles in all genres and categories.”
Some takeaways among unit sales—and we’re quoting here:
- “Unsurprisingly, Amazon is the majority retailer in just about every market.
- “But in Canada and Australia, Amazon is a lot less dominant than in the US and the UK.
- “Taken all together, Amazon accounts for more than 80 percent of English-language ebook purchases, Apple another 10 percent, Kobo 2 percent, and Nook 3 percent.
- “The remaining 3 percent—ascribed to Google Play and all remaining channels—is most likely overly optimistic. Their true share might well be even lower.”
Here’s one more set of takeaways, this time looking at who’s selling the most—the indie author vs. publisher question that Data Guy consistently pursues. We’re quoting again:
- “Self-published indie authors are … capturing at least 24 to 34 percent of all ebook sales in each of the five English-language markets…. When you also include the uncategorized authors, the vast majority of whom are also self-published, the true indie share in each market lies somewhere between 30 and 40 percent.
- “Indies are competing particularly well in the Canadian and Australian ebook markets, nearly approaching the level of dominance they currently hold in the US.
- “The Big Five, on the other hand, are letting themselves progressively get squeezed out of nearly every English-language ebook market….
- “Amazon [Publishing] imprints have made the most market headway in the US…. The dozen or so Amazon [Publishing] imprints between them account for 14 percent of all US ebook sales, 10 percent of all UK ebook sales, and 8 percent of Australian ebook sales. In Canada, the Amazon [Publishing] imprint footprint is a much more modest 3 percent of all ebook sales, largely due to the substantial shares of the overall Canadian ebook market held by Kobo (25 percent) and Apple (14 percent).”
Bottom line: Those familiar with these reports will find the usual narrative: a strong showing for indie authors. We wish that Data Guy could settle on a standard picture for each report rather than changing things up (this is the “Big, Bad, Wide & International Report”), so readers could get a more consistent look at the same parameters over time. The opening premise is heady but incomplete: “With the click of a button, any author can start selling any title they wish simultaneously in 12 country-specific Amazon stores, 36 country-specific Kobo ebook stores, and over 40 country-specific Apple ebook stores.” What’s not mentioned is that, without targeted marketing, the residents of those countries may have no idea that a book exists in their store. As ever, we counsel that you read Author Earnings, but bear in mind that its estimation techniques are unproven and it carries a pro-indie agenda.
Jane Friedman has spent her entire career working in the publishing industry, with a focus on business reporting and author education. Established in 2015, her newsletter The Bottom Line provides nuanced market intelligence to thousands of authors and industry professionals; in 2023, she was named Publishing Commentator of the Year by Digital Book World.
Jane’s expertise regularly features in major media outlets such as The New York Times, The Atlantic, NPR, The Today Show, Wired, The Guardian, Fox News, and BBC. Her book, The Business of Being a Writer, Second Edition (The University of Chicago Press), is used as a classroom text by many writing and publishing degree programs. She reaches thousands through speaking engagements and workshops at diverse venues worldwide, including NYU’s Advanced Publishing Institute, Frankfurt Book Fair, and numerous MFA programs.
