Every couple months, we find ourselves revisiting the growth and interest in digital audio content, whether in the form of audiobooks or podcasting. (You can read our earlier coverage of the new Audible initiative, Channels, here.)
The latest move from Audible is to offer some of its audio content for free to US Amazon Prime customers. (Remember, Amazon owns Audible.) Prime members can now freely access all Channels original audio content, as well as a rotating selection of more than fifty audiobooks from Audible’s catalog. Current estimates put Prime membership at around 60 million people, give or take a couple million.
Meanwhile, indicating the need for more formality around advertising and audio content, the Interactive Advertising Bureau published podcast ad metrics guidelines. Measurability of podcast audiences is one of the thorniest problems facing the medium. Industry observers, such as Nicholas Quah at Nieman Lab, found a lot to criticize in the IAB standards, but it all points to the growing evolution and professionalism of the industry. This summer, the New York Times, which had previously invested little in its podcasting strategy, added an audio-on-demand team of about six people, no doubt because they’re aware of the following statistics:
- Podcast advertising may reach $200 million next year.
- Podcast advertising expanded at a 48 percent rate last year.
- Podcast advertising is forecast to grow 25 percent a year through 2020.
In the past, podcast ads have rarely been dynamic (they’re set and can’t change after the podcast is made available), but soon podcast ads will be delivered dynamically across major shows, making the advertising far more lucrative.
But here’s a reality check: the median number of downloads for any podcast episode is 173. The top 10 percent get 3,900. The podcasting landscape, not unlike the ebook landscape, offers hundreds of thousands of choices, but only the top echelon of producers can make a living (or a profit). Not to mention there are only so many hours in a day, and US internet usage shows signs of peaking. The loads of venture capital cash now pouring into the on-demand audio market is a business gamble like any other; the effort goes toward trying to invest in podcast networks that will stick around for many years rather than fizzle out.
Bottom line: As Ken Doctor says in the introduction to his series on the business of on-demand audio, “What’s now clear is that podcasts have joined the digital text and video as a prominent new media form of its own—a format for storytelling that is connecting with a broad audience.” Amazon has well positioned itself to ride this trend and grow its audio business—in the form of both originally produced content and audiobooks—and traditional publishers continue to enjoy their largest sales gains in the audiobook market. Doctor’s series explores questions such as: How big will this industry will get? Will the riches mostly go to a few big players? And is it a mass or a niche business? The answers will be important for storytellers of all kinds.
Jane Friedman has spent her entire career working in the publishing industry, with a focus on business reporting and author education. Established in 2015, her newsletter The Bottom Line provides nuanced market intelligence to thousands of authors and industry professionals; in 2023, she was named Publishing Commentator of the Year by Digital Book World.
Jane’s expertise regularly features in major media outlets such as The New York Times, The Atlantic, NPR, The Today Show, Wired, The Guardian, Fox News, and BBC. Her book, The Business of Being a Writer, Second Edition (The University of Chicago Press), is used as a classroom text by many writing and publishing degree programs. She reaches thousands through speaking engagements and workshops at diverse venues worldwide, including NYU’s Advanced Publishing Institute, Frankfurt Book Fair, and numerous MFA programs.
