As new fiction titles continue to struggle, the book categories now driving growth reflect the nostalgic preferences of millennials and everyone’s desire to nest and focus on health (especially after reading the latest political tome)
Amidst all the book-loving platitudes, BookExpo delivered a bit of tried-and-true programming: the annual stat report from NPD (which recently bought BookScan from Nielsen).
NPD BookScan (which tracks traditional publishing sales) offered two presentations: one on book trends and another on general retail trends. Surprising to no one: the sales growth of political books. The number of print units sold following the 2016 election is nearly double the volume following the 2012 election. It’s not that more books are being published; each title is just selling better. Political books are also showing digital growth and are up 22 percent compared to a decline of 5 percent for all ebooks tracked by NPD.
The political landscape is also boosting other categories, such as dystopian fiction (where sales have doubled) and prescriptive nonfiction. Personal growth and motivational/inspirational titles (such as The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F— by Mark Manson and You Are a Badass by Jen Sincero) have seen double-digit print sales growth, and the latest era of self-improvement titles has been driven by younger consumers—millennials in particular—in what NPD called “adulting with attitude.”
NPD identified a few categories where traditional publishing is missing out on growth opportunities. Overall, the health and fitness category grew 10 percent in 2017, with diet/nutrition up 8 percent, alternative therapies up 56 percent, and herbal medications up 17 percent. NPD’s Jonathan Stolper said a lot of books in this category are coming from CreateSpace—that is, self-publishing authors or very small presses. Similarly, cookbooks are on the rise because people are spending more time at home preparing quality meals. Sales of appliance-focused cookbooks (such as those featuring recipes for Instant Pot and air fryers) are up 59 percent; low-carb titles are up 115 percent; vegetarian titles are up 25 percent. Again, a lot of these titles come from indie authors.
Also driving print book sales: millennials want traditional media for their children. Nostalgia drives retail across many sectors, not just book publishing; millennials take comfort in brands they know and have loved since they were children. This has affected the sales of classic board books in particular, which have grown 13 percent over the last four years and continue to accelerate. Nearly 30 percent of kids’ books sold in 2017 were from an established brand, such as Dr. Seuss, Harry Potter, Wimpy Kid, and National Geographic—leading Stolper to advise that publishers expand their evergreen intellectual property.
Broadly, traditional print book sales continue to grow at about 2 to 3 percent per year, driven by nonfiction backlist titles and children’s. Fiction sales have been flat for several years now, with frontlist fiction down 5 percent due to a lack of big titles. NPD says traditional retail is struggling and online sales are surging, although they are not permitted (due to an agreement with Amazon, presumably) to reveal the sales split between online vs brick-and-mortar retail. Five years ago, ebooks were at 28 percent market share for traditionally published books; today they are at 20 percent. NPD’s explanation for the drop: people are shifting from e-readers to tablets and phones that offer more distractions, and ebook pricing has gone up, which they call “the biggest barrier to entry.”
Bottom line: If there were any answers to preserving the primacy of independent booksellers, they were to be found in the NPD presentation from Kristen McLean. She said the elements shaping retail are curation (less is more and point of view counts); convenience (time is valuable); and personalization among mass-produced, growing retail businesses. The growing retailers right now are the ones innovating or trying to be competitive and experimenting with new things. McLean said that bookselling is not any easier than it ever was—and the profit margin hasn’t changed (it’s less than 3 percent)—but indie booksellers should have an advantage in that they understand what it means to have a “retail experience.” She advised: pare down selection, have more books face-out, and make it easy for someone to find a book they know they will love. She said Amazon bookstores do this well. McLean’s message of curation was in direct opposition to Riggio’s opening comments at BookExpo; he felt it important that booksellers offer as many books as possible on shelves. We have our money on McLean.
Jane Friedman has spent her entire career working in the publishing industry, with a focus on business reporting and author education. Established in 2015, her newsletter The Bottom Line provides nuanced market intelligence to thousands of authors and industry professionals; in 2023, she was named Publishing Commentator of the Year by Digital Book World.
Jane’s expertise regularly features in major media outlets such as The New York Times, The Atlantic, NPR, The Today Show, Wired, The Guardian, Fox News, and BBC. Her book, The Business of Being a Writer, Second Edition (The University of Chicago Press), is used as a classroom text by many writing and publishing degree programs. She reaches thousands through speaking engagements and workshops at diverse venues worldwide, including NYU’s Advanced Publishing Institute, Frankfurt Book Fair, and numerous MFA programs.
