An interesting insight into the largely blockbuster-free book market of 2016 came near the end of the year as Michael Cader at Publishers Lunch reported on the July StatShot report from the Association of American Publishers (AAP).
The release of Harry Potter and the Cursed Child lifted sales for its US publisher, Scholastic, as expected. The publishing house had seen sales for Q1 (ending August 31) rise to $283 million over $191 million in the same quarter in 2015. Trade publishing sales, Cader reported (subscription required), were $116.9 million in that quarter this year, over $47.3 million in the previous year, when there was no new Potter release.
And while the power of Potter is real enough and undeniably impressive, what makes this less than boffo news for publishing, Cader writes (subscription required), is that AAP’s figures show that “the Potter gain was more of a movement of inventory dollars from new adult books rather than any kind of overall boost to the trade.” In fact, net adult hardcover revenues were down $24.7 million in July, as were total digital sales.
Bottom line: While the AAP reports are running a bit behind this year, they’re describing something that echoes the information Nielsen provided a couple of years ago, when its research showed 80 percent of YA being read by adults. Particularly as the Potter canon “grows up,” it might be expected to trend more readily toward an adult audience and to produce similar effects to those seen in July with Cursed Child. There’s no denying the success of the release, but content that lies, as this does, on a cusp between YA and adult interest may be especially likely to show up as robbing Peter to pay Paul on the market.
Jane Friedman has spent her entire career working in the publishing industry, with a focus on business reporting and author education. Established in 2015, her newsletter The Bottom Line provides nuanced market intelligence to thousands of authors and industry professionals; in 2023, she was named Publishing Commentator of the Year by Digital Book World.
Jane’s expertise regularly features in major media outlets such as The New York Times, The Atlantic, NPR, The Today Show, Wired, The Guardian, Fox News, and BBC. Her book, The Business of Being a Writer, Second Edition (The University of Chicago Press), is used as a classroom text by many writing and publishing degree programs. She reaches thousands through speaking engagements and workshops at diverse venues worldwide, including NYU’s Advanced Publishing Institute, Frankfurt Book Fair, and numerous MFA programs.
