In the last issue, I recapped the most notable stories of 2023. In 2024, I’ll be closely watching these ongoing developments.
Lawsuits against AI will face challenges; look for increased licensing deals
Late in 2023, we already saw judges throwing out a large portion of infringement claims against AI companies because they’re too wide reaching and don’t reflect a nuanced understanding of copyright law. I expect that will happen with most or all of these cases. The strongest cases I’ve seen have been brought by the Authors Guild (for fiction) and the New York Times (for nonfiction), so I recommend following their cases for a good indicator of what could happen in the future in regard to AI and copyright. In fact, the NYT has even suggested to the court that the two cases be combined.
That said, even the lawsuits that remain standing at year’s end will take a long time to come to any resolution, assuming they are not settled out of court. We’re seeing licensing agreements as well. So far the Associated Press, Business Insider, and Axel Springer have all struck deals with OpenAI (terms not disclosed). Apple is also in talks with publishers about licensing content.
For general predictions about AI, read Bill Gates. For more narrow predictions, especially those more applicable to media/publishing, read Dave Karpf.
The antitrust suit against Amazon
The FTC and 17 states have an antitrust lawsuit underway against Amazon. The Nation has called it “the biggest antitrust fight of our time.” Amazon has asked a federal judge to dismiss it, naturally. Like the cases against AI companies, this one will likely take years to resolve. If a new US administration is elected in 2025, the whole case could be dropped. Or Amazon could settle out of court. In 2022, Amazon settled with the EU on an antitrust case and changed some of its business practices.
Growth of self-publishing authors who use traditional partners (and vice versa)
I feel like we may be at an interesting inflection point where some of the most successful and widely read authors use a mix of self-publishing and traditional publishing models. Two of the biggest and most popular authors today—Colleen Hoover and Brandon Sanderson—demonstrate this, and perhaps (just perhaps) their powerful example is loosening things up and making everyone more flexible in how these models can be combined for everyone’s benefit (that includes authors, agents, publishers, and readers).
Bloom Books, established in 2021 as an imprint of Sourcebooks, is home to a range of successful indie authors who take responsibility for their digital editions but hand over print distribution to Bloom. (See Ana Huang and Lucy Score.) Podium Audio, established in 2012, started off by identifying successful indie authors and bringing them into audio format. Now Podium is helping indie authors publish and distribute all formats, not just audio. Are traditional publishers eyeing these efforts? Will they try to get in on the action? Bookouture just signed a prolific and successful self-published author in December, so certainly there is always opportunism.
Bestselling authors appear more than willing to embark on indie projects without publisher support when the need arises. One of the more recent examples is Cassandra Clare.
Spotify’s streaming audiobook service will be a nothingburger
Here is my working theory: Anyone who is a Spotify premium subscriber but not already an avid audiobook listener might take advantage of the free 15 hours each month but never purchase additional hours via Spotify. (They’ll just wait for the next month.) Anyone who is an avid audiobook listener is unlikely to abandon their current method of consuming audiobooks because, frankly, the Spotify deal is a bad one for readers. Spotify doesn’t offer unlimited listening at any price, and it doesn’t offer continued access/ownership of audiobooks, like Audible does. So if you re-listen on Spotify, you’re burning up more hours. I’m frankly not sure why anyone would want to rely on Spotify for anything but casual, non-committed listening. Is that the sort of thing that will grow the audiobook market by leaps and bounds the way Spotify thinks? If it does hook more people on audiobooks, I suspect people will go elsewhere to purchase. Maybe I’m wrong about people’s desire to own/revisit audiobooks as well as about their willingness to buy more hours from Spotify. We shall see.
Was The Hot Sheet’s 2023 outlook accurate?
Here’s what I discussed a year ago.
- Publishing workers fight for better pay and benefits. The HarperCollins strike ended early in the year with the pay raise that employees were looking for. 2023 also saw the Writers Guild of America launch a significant strike, ending in what was considered a victory for the writers, plus bookstore workers at Powell’s struck, leading to a 28 percent increase in pay over the next four years. On Dec. 22, unionized workers at Barnes & Noble’s flagship store in New York City walked off the job to demand better pay; negotiations continue.
- Big publishers versus the Internet Archive. The case ended as predicted, with the Internet Archive losing. However, it is pursuing an appeal in a different district court. Still, a better outcome appears quite unlikely.
- Creator economy cools off. I guess it depends a little on where you look. NFTs disappeared almost entirely from the conversation in the publishing sector, while platforms such as Substack have only garnered greater interest. Right now, advertising-supported mainstream publications are suffering, with layoffs dramatically affecting writers working conventional media jobs. It’s pretty common to see Substack efforts from people who have lost their jobs—or expect to.
- Amazon falters. While Amazon didn’t shutter any initiatives of importance to writers, Kindle Unlimited payments reached a dramatic low in July 2023 ($.003989 per page), driving more authors to seek direct sales opportunities. Meanwhile, Amazon has been hit with an antitrust suit by the FTC (see above).
- AI will be the center of attention and controversy. Yes. Yes, it was.
- TikTok falls from grace a little bit. I predicted that TikTok’s book sales boost in 2023 wouldn’t be as dramatic as in years past, and that has proven true. But its influence and ability to drive sales—and its overall importance to book publishing—remains front and center.
- It’s the end of the mass social media era. Twitter/X took a dark turn over the last year, and writers often ask me what has “replaced” Twitter. I don’t think anything has in fact replaced it, although Threads may move into that position in 2024. Even so, I think people value the intimacy and privacy of smaller, more niche groups, where they’re less likely to deal with trolls and people who aren’t really interested in a good-faith exchange of ideas.
Jane Friedman has spent her entire career working in the publishing industry, with a focus on business reporting and author education. Established in 2015, her newsletter The Bottom Line provides nuanced market intelligence to thousands of authors and industry professionals; in 2023, she was named Publishing Commentator of the Year by Digital Book World.
Jane’s expertise regularly features in major media outlets such as The New York Times, The Atlantic, NPR, The Today Show, Wired, The Guardian, Fox News, and BBC. Her book, The Business of Being a Writer, Second Edition (The University of Chicago Press), is used as a classroom text by many writing and publishing degree programs. She reaches thousands through speaking engagements and workshops at diverse venues worldwide, including NYU’s Advanced Publishing Institute, Frankfurt Book Fair, and numerous MFA programs.
