Every year at Digital Book World, a representative from Nielsen is on hand to deliver a keynote summarizing traditional publishing book sales over the last year. Additionally, for the last two years, Digital Book World has welcomed Data Guy—the anonymous analyst for Author Earnings—to discuss findings from scraped Amazon data and offer insights into “non-traditional” sales that aren’t tracked through Nielsen. (A good portion of the self-publishing community doesn’t use ISBNs, making it difficult or impossible to track sales, and of course Amazon isn’t offering sales information, either.)
Together, these two presentations offer a rich source of data for comparison, with the caveat that, while Nielsen is working with actual point-of-sale data, Data Guy is not—Author Earnings reports are estimates derived from Amazon sales ranks, although Data Guy does work with bestselling authors who volunteer their sales data to help improve the accuracy of his estimates.
With that explanation out of the way, let’s take a look at some of the key takeaways from their presentations.
- Is print really back? For traditional publishers, yes. Since 2013, the traditional book publishing industry has enjoyed about a 3 percent increase in print book sales. However, print book sales grew largely because—according to Author Earnings—Amazon sold more print books. Barnes & Noble’s sales declined by 6 percent in 2016, and sales from mass merchandisers (Target, Walmart, etc.) also declined. But Amazon’s print sales in 2016, primarily driven by their own discounting, grew by 15 percent, which more than made up for the decline in other sectors of the market.
- Are ebook sales declining? Only for traditional publishers, not for the market as a whole. Traditional publishers saw ebook sales decline by 16 percent in 2016. But Author Earnings estimates Amazon’s ebook sales grew by 4 percent. Traditional publishers are losing ebook market share to the non-traditional market of indie authors, small presses, and Amazon’s own house imprints. Both Nielsen and Author Earnings confirmed that, when looking at the total adult fiction sales of traditional publishers only, about half of all sales are digital. When factoring in the non-traditional market, more than two-thirds of all adult fiction sales are digital.
- Books without ISBNs account for $550 million in spending. Author Earnings estimates that these books account for 43 percent of all ebook sales at Amazon and for about 24 percent of all dollars spent on ebooks at Amazon.
- Coloring books are now on the decline for traditional publishers—possibly because of indie competition. Coloring books began to take off for traditional publishers in September 2015 and then boomed in the final quarter of that year. But the last quarter of 2016 saw a 2 million unit drop in December alone. Author Earnings believes that indie authors have stolen away market share because they’ve undercut prices—averaging $6.78 per title versus $11.70 for a Big Five title.
- One of the genres in which indie authors have established the most strength: African-American fiction. Author Earnings estimates that 71 percent of all units sold in this category are from self-published authors, and 96 percent of all units sold are ebooks. The price differential here is significant, with the average indie ebook selling for $2.76, and Big Five ebooks selling for $12.45.
Bottom line: Nielsen’s Jonathan Stolper, who presented this year’s data, said very directly, “Price is the most important and most influential barrier to entry for ebook buyers, and the increase in price coincided with the decrease in sales.” So there’s no room for argument any longer: Big Five’s increase in ebook prices has directly led to that format’s decline. Any talk about “digital fatigue,” the consumer’s nostalgia for print, or a preference for the bookstore experience isn’t supported by the sales evidence. If print is back, it’s because consumers are unwilling to pay more (or about the same price) for an ebook.
Editor’s note: This article is from a special Digital Book World edition of The Hot Sheet.
Jane Friedman has spent her entire career working in the publishing industry, with a focus on business reporting and author education. Established in 2015, her newsletter The Bottom Line provides nuanced market intelligence to thousands of authors and industry professionals; in 2023, she was named Publishing Commentator of the Year by Digital Book World.
Jane’s expertise regularly features in major media outlets such as The New York Times, The Atlantic, NPR, The Today Show, Wired, The Guardian, Fox News, and BBC. Her book, The Business of Being a Writer, Second Edition (The University of Chicago Press), is used as a classroom text by many writing and publishing degree programs. She reaches thousands through speaking engagements and workshops at diverse venues worldwide, including NYU’s Advanced Publishing Institute, Frankfurt Book Fair, and numerous MFA programs.
