We’ve had several inquiries from authors about a new book released last month: The Bestseller Code: Anatomy of the Blockbuster Novel by Jodie Archer and Matthew L. Jockers (both PhDs). And who wouldn’t wonder what’s up when they see this paragraph in the introductory chapter:
“The bold claim of this book is that the novels that hit the New York Times bestseller lists are not random, and the market is not in fact as unknowable as others suggest. Regardless of genre, bestsellers share an uncanny number of latent features that give us new insights into what we read and why. What’s more, algorithms allow us to discover new and even as yet unpublished books with similar hallmarks of bestselling DNA.”
Natural language processing analysis of books is hardly new. Trajectory, based in Boston, is one of the companies known for its efforts in having computers “read” books for myriad factors—such as plot, sentiment, emotional arcs, etc.—in hopes of one day enhancing discoverability through text-based recommendations.
Vancouver-based consultant Thad McIlroy has looked closely at the book, and we agree with his sense of where the book works and where it doesn’t. He concludes that The Bestseller Code is enjoyable to read and offers a range of insights, but, ultimately, “the source code is not to be found. Nor, for that matter, the names of the 5,000 books used to hone the code.” When McIlroy asked the authors if they intend to sell or license their code to publishers, they responded, “No concrete plans at the moment.”
However, there is something here for writers to grab on to if they want to learn how to avoid the slush pile and be more like a New York Times bestseller. McIlroy writes, “The bulk of the book concerns the authors’ analysis of theme, plot, style, and character in novels. They combine a traditional dissection of what works and what doesn’t with their own secret sauce. Examining the work of Danielle Steel and John Grisham, they determine that these hugely successful authors devote a third of their most successful books to singular themes.”
Bottom line: The authors of The Bestseller Code write, “We care about bringing people who don’t have the right contacts in New York to a readership.” Given that the bulk of the book does distill at least some of the keys to crafting bestselling fiction, authors may learn a thing or two here—as they would from any writing advice book. But, as far as we know, there aren’t any authors or publishers who will be setting out to test Archer and Jockers’s “bestseller-ometer” by letting it parse books just before launch to predict bestsellers.
Jane Friedman has spent her entire career working in the publishing industry, with a focus on business reporting and author education. Established in 2015, her newsletter The Bottom Line provides nuanced market intelligence to thousands of authors and industry professionals; in 2023, she was named Publishing Commentator of the Year by Digital Book World.
Jane’s expertise regularly features in major media outlets such as The New York Times, The Atlantic, NPR, The Today Show, Wired, The Guardian, Fox News, and BBC. Her book, The Business of Being a Writer, Second Edition (The University of Chicago Press), is used as a classroom text by many writing and publishing degree programs. She reaches thousands through speaking engagements and workshops at diverse venues worldwide, including NYU’s Advanced Publishing Institute, Frankfurt Book Fair, and numerous MFA programs.
