While we’re awaiting final numbers and analyses from NPD BookScan and the Association of American Publishers (plus the big publishers), here are some starting takeaways based on 2022 data thus far.
- The romance market was the leading growth category and drove overall gains in the adult fiction market. This growth is specific to print; ebook sales volume actually declined by 16 percent. NPD BookScan’s Kristen McLean noted, “The fact that the growth is happening only in print formats, coupled with the fact that traditional romance authors are not keeping up with the overall sector growth, indicates that this truly is a whole new group of readers coming to this genre.”
- Authors featured on BookTok drove the lion’s share of fiction growth, and most BookTok sellers are backlist (older) titles. You can hear more from McLean on BookTok in this 15-minute NPD podcast. Backlist sales are about 70 percent of print sales as measured by BookScan, meaning authors and publishers should capitalize on opportunities to repackage backlist fiction for a new generation of readers.
- Adult nonfiction has seen declines this year, especially in ebook format. In print alone, the decline is about 10 percent versus 2021. Prior to the pandemic (and while Trump was still president), adult nonfiction drove growth while adult fiction flatlined. The two categories have exchanged places. However, business and economics books reached a 10-year sales high; popular topics include entrepreneurship, revamping of HR, and expanding skills. The travel category also rebounded after severe declines in 2020–2021.
- YA fiction print sales grew about 3 percent this year, which may not seem like a lot but represents an increase of over 50 percent compared to 2019. TikTok is one of the drivers.
- Colleen Hoover’s newest title, It Starts with Us, sold more than 800,000 copies during its first week on sale. Atria printed 2.5 million copies and said the book was the most pre-ordered novel in Simon & Schuster history. Overall, print unit sales of Hoover’s books in 2022 rivaled E.L. James’s Fifty Shades of Grey and surpassed the Bible. At one point during the year, Hoover’s books accounted for six of the top 10 bestselling books in the US.
- Prominent paid placements in retail locations are no longer enough for book discovery (and Barnes & Noble doesn’t accept them now). Sales highs typically result from streaming media (e.g., Netflix), page-to-screen pipelines, influencer book clubs, anime/manga series, fan mobilization, and (of course) BookTok.
Jane Friedman has spent her entire career working in the publishing industry, with a focus on business reporting and author education. Established in 2015, her newsletter The Bottom Line provides nuanced market intelligence to thousands of authors and industry professionals; in 2023, she was named Publishing Commentator of the Year by Digital Book World.
Jane’s expertise regularly features in major media outlets such as The New York Times, The Atlantic, NPR, The Today Show, Wired, The Guardian, Fox News, and BBC. Her book, The Business of Being a Writer, Second Edition (The University of Chicago Press), is used as a classroom text by many writing and publishing degree programs. She reaches thousands through speaking engagements and workshops at diverse venues worldwide, including NYU’s Advanced Publishing Institute, Frankfurt Book Fair, and numerous MFA programs.
